Markets Favoring July Over June for Boost to Fed Rates: Chart

July is rapidly becoming the favored timing for an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The implied probability of a hike by the central-bank meeting that month rose to 48 percent in the futures market, from 19 percent a week ago, while the chance of a move in June climbed to 28 percent from 4 percent. The difference between the two is at the widest this year. Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York, called July “a very viable option" because Britain’s referendum on European Union membership will be done by then and imminent gross domestic product data for the U.S. means “the committee will have a pretty good handle on” the economy.

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