Gundlach Sees 50% Odds of Fed Move as Treasury Volatility Falls

  • U.S. 30-year yield may pass 6% over next decade, Gundlach says
  • Mizuho Asset’s Ito says odds of Fed move have fallen to zero

Should Central Banks Act More Hawkish?

Jeffrey Gundlach said there’s a 50 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

QuickTake The Fed Lifts Off

Yields will rise over the next decade, said Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, in a webcast Thursday. U.S. 30-year yields will climb past 6 percent, he said, from 2.58 percent Friday. The DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund returned 2.9 percent in the past 12 months, beating 57 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Traders are scaling back forecasts for a Fed move in 2016 as U.S. inflation falls short of the central bank’s target. Futures contracts indicate the odds are in line with Gundlach’s call, plunging from more than 90 percent in January. Some investors say the Fed will be on hold all year. Two regional Fed presidents usually on opposing sides of the policy debate made separate but similar cases Thursday for a rate increase.

“The chance of a Fed increase is definitely zero, and I don’t think I’m an outlier” said Yusuke Ito, the senior investor in Tokyo for Mizuho Asset Management, which oversees about $46 billion. “Yields are going south.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 1.73 percent as of 7:24 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in May 2026 climbed 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 1/32.

Volatility in the U.S. bond market is falling along with the odds of a Fed move. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in U.S. debt, declined to 63.92, the lowest level since the end of 2014, before the release of reports Friday on retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment.

The annual change in the Commerce Department’s price index tied to personal spending, one of the measures the Fed uses to gauge inflation watch, has been below the central bank’s 2 percent target for four years.

Remarks by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and the Kansas City Fed’s Esther George hinted at a potential consensus between hawks and doves on the Federal Open Market Committee around the need for action. Both are voters on the FOMC this year.

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