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Kentucky Derby Picks for the Value Investor

  • At 15-1, Outwork offers the best betting value in the race
  • Other horses to consider: Gun Runner, Mo Tom and Shagaf
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Kentucky Derby: Finding a Winner in the 20 Horse Field

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The colt Outwork is an imposing physical specimen. Big and powerful, he sports a gleaming brown coat and a huge stride. His talent was on full display in a flashy, final workout for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby -- front legs rising high before reaching out and rhythmically gobbling up ground as his rider, the Hall-of-Famer John Velazquez, sat chilly in the irons.

That one-minute drill last week sold me on the horse. There are certainly other contenders that are more experienced and have bigger resumes -- starting with the undefeated Nyquist -- but Outwork has the look of a prospect with a ton of upside. And at projected odds of 15-1, he will offer solid betting value. I’ll play him to win and weave him into my exotic wagers with a handful of other horses in the 10-1 to 20-1 range: Gun Runner, Mo Tom and Shagaf.