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Oil Market Deja Vu Triggers Predictions of a Return to $30

  • Prices throw a `lifeline' to U.S. shale producers: BNP Paribas
  • Crude will sink back to $30 as supply glut persists: UBS
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Demand, Fundaments and the Oil Market Comeback

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Oil’s climb above $45 a barrel is reassuring influential figures from BP Plc to the International Energy Agency that the industry is finally recovering from the worst slump in a generation. Others say the market is about to fall into the same trap as last year.

There’s a sense of deja vu at Commerzbank AG, BNP Paribas SA and UBS Group AG, who say crude’s gain of about 70 percent from a 12-year low in January resembles the recovery that took hold this time last year -- only to sputter out by May as the supply glut endured. Prices will sink back towards $30 a barrel in the coming weeks, BNP and UBS warn.