Survey: U.K. Growth, Inflation Forecasts Continue to Fall

  • 2016 GDP estimates lowered to 1.9% versus 2% previously
  • 2016 CPI estimates lowered to 0.7% versus 0.8% previously

The following summary includes consensus forecasts for the U.K. economic and money markets collected from April 8 to April 14. Fifty-two economists were included in the survey.

  • 2017 GDP forecasts maintained at 2.2 percent, 2018 lowered to 2.1 percent versus 2.2 percent previously
  • 2016 current account forecast lowered to minus 4.4 percent from minus 4.2 percent previously
  • Inflation expected to average 0.7 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.9 percent in 2018
  • Economists continue to see a Bank of England rate increase in 1Q 2017
  • Majority of economists expect that the U.K. economy would need further support from the Bank of England in the event of Brexit, according to a separate survey.
Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Avg. 2016Avg. 2017
GDP YoY%2.0%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.2%
CPI YoY%n/a0.6%0.8%0.7%1.7%
Unemployment rate5.1%5.1%5.0%5.0%4.9%
Current Acct. % GDP-4.9%-4.4%-4.2%-4.4%-4.0%
Budget as a % GDPn/an/an/a-3.1%-2.2%

Note: For all economic forecasts, see ECFC.

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