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Who Will Win New York? Six Views Point to Trump, Clinton Victories

Statistical models, betting markets, and the Internet weigh in on the battle for the Empire State.
Bloomberg business news

Empire State of Mind: Previewing the New York Primary


Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump appear to be heading for home-turf wins in Tuesday’s New York presidential primaries, while Brooklyn native Bernie Sanders hopes to build momentum against Clinton and GOP underdogs Ted Cruz and John Kasich look to deprive Trump of delegates. Here are six credible predictions on how the race might shake out.

The research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, aggregates betting-market data and has successfully predicted the winner in 55 of 65 nominating contests it's covered so far this year. As of Sunday, PredictWise gave Trump a 98-percent chance of winning the state, as well as an 85-percent chance (up from 76 percent last week) of winning more than half of the Republican votes.