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Deal or No Deal, Oil Freeze Seen Having Little Supply Impact

  • Analysts, traders split on whether producers will agree on cap
  • Most attendees already pumping crude near full capacity
Bloomberg business news

The Difficulty of Determining an Oil Price Regime

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Oil-market watchers see a 50-50 chance that Russia, Saudi Arabia and other major producers will agree to freeze output in Doha on April 17, but either way they don’t anticipate any impact on crude supply because most of the countries are already pumping flat out.

While 40 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News were evenly split over whether talks in the Qatari capital will succeed in capping production, a majority of those who predicted a deal said it would have no impact on actual flows of oil, a view shared by the International Energy Agency in its monthly oil market report on Thursday. Most producers attending the meeting aren’t able to increase production even if they want to, according to Rystad Energy AS and BNP Paribas SA.