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The Art of Calling Brazil's Currency Rally From 6,700 Miles Away

  • Top forecasters paid more heed to commodities than politics
  • MPS, SEB see real up again this quarter, weaker by year-end
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A strategist in Tuscany, a forecaster in Warsaw and an analyst in Stockholm are proof that it’s possible to follow a market too closely.

What do the three men have in common? They did a better job calling the Brazilian real’s world-beating rally in the first quarter from as much as 6,700 miles away than their counterparts closer to Sao Paulo who are knee-deep in protests and polemic. Italy’s MPS Capital Services, Sweden’s Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken and Poland’s were the most-accurate real soothsayers in Bloomberg’s quarterly rankings, besting groups with far more experience in the region and teams on the ground.