U.S. Payrolls Face March Jinx After Fed’s Dovish Twist: Analysis

March is the cruelest month for U.S. nonfarm payrolls as the published data came below estimates in seven of past eight years, Bloomberg strategist Tanvir Sandhu writes.

From 2008, actual release numbers fell short of the median in Bloomberg survey forecasts by an average of approximately 53,000.

Since 2000, March headline total nonfarm payroll numbers missed estimates 67 percent of the time by an average of approximately 69,000. In March 2015, the headline number was 119,000 below estimates, the biggest miss since 2001.

U.S. employment data to be published April 1 with the headline NFP number expected at 200,000 compared to 242,000 in February. Predictions range between 145,000 and 235,000.

Fed rate hike in April is largely off the table after FOMC marked down interest rate increase forecasts by 50 basis points for this year. U.S. OIS curve currently assigns 8 percent probability of 25 basis points rate increase in April vs 26 percent on March 14, while September hike probability is 83 percent vs 91 percent.

Note: Tanvir Sandhu is a cross-asset derivatives market strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.