Two U.K. EU Phone Polls Show `Remain' Ahead With Reduced Lead

  • Latest Survation poll finds lead down to 11 points from 15
  • ComRes survey sees advantage shrinking from 12 to 7 points

Two opinion polls conducted by telephone ahead of the U.K.’s June 23 referendum on European Union membership showed clear but reduced leads for staying in the bloc.

A Survation survey conducted March 17-19 found 46 percent of respondents backing “Remain” with 35 percent for “Leave” and 19 percent undecided. That 11 percentage-point lead for staying in is down from 15 percent a month earlier, Survation said in a statement Thursday.

ComRes published a phone poll for ITV News Wednesday showing 48 percent for “Remain” and 41 percent for “Leave,” with 11 percent undecided. The 7-point advantage compared with one of 12 points conducted after Prime Minister David Cameron reached a deal on new U.K. membership terms with other EU leaders four weeks ago. It was the lowest lead for staying in the bloc in a ComRes phone poll since the May 2015 general election.

The “Remain” camp’s advantage in phone polls on the referendum question has been gradually shrinking; a ComRes survey published in mid-December showed a 19-point lead. Still, they’ve continued to show clear leads for staying in, compared with more frequent and cheaper online polling, which has suggested the result may be too close to call; this week’s online survey by ICM showed “Leave” 2 points ahead.

Survation’s poll of 1,006 voters had a 3.1-point margin of error. ComRes interviewed 1,002 adults March 18-20. It didn’t specify an error margin.

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