China Congress, Primaries, ECB, Carney: Week Ahead March 5-12

  • Aviva, Dollar General, Merck, Prudential to release earnings
  • China sets economic targets for 2016, decides new 5-Year plan

China’s National People’s Congress opens, giving investors fresh insight into the country’s priorities as economic targets are set for 2016 and officials decide the party’s new five-year plan.

U.S. presidential primaries and caucuses are held in Washington, DC, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska and Puerto Rico.

President Barack Obama hosts Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House.

Euro cost of hedging surges ahead of ECB policy decision.

The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy and debate economic stimulus.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testifies to U.K. lawmakers on issues related to Britain’s June 23 referendum on European Union membership.

Canada, Malaysia, Poland and South Korea also make interest-rate decisions.

Syria peace talks are scheduled to resume in Geneva.

Dollar General Corp., E.ON SE, Prudential Plc and Merck KGaA are among the companies releasing earnings.

The Maserati Levante sits on display in Geneva

Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

The Geneva International Auto Show continues, with much fanfare surrounding the new Maserati sport utility vehicle.

Saturday, March 5

-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will outline the government budget and official GDP target at the opening of the National People’s Congress. Li will also release a five-year development plan. The annual plenary session begins at 09:00 in Beijing (03/04 20:00 EST) and runs through March 16.

-Slovakia Election. Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Smer party leads in opinion polls, though he may not win an outright majority and has said he may approach other parties to form a ruling coalition after the vote. Polls close at 22:00 CET (16:00 EST); results are expected as soon as March 6.

-CODEPINK holds its 2016 Summit on Saudi Arabiato address human rights, Saudi internal and foreign policy, and the prospects for change inside the kingdom and in U.S.-Saudi relations. In Washington through March 6.

-The Geneva International Motor Show. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV is exhibiting 10 new or refreshed models at the show as part of its expansion in Europe, including the upscale Maserati Levante sport utility vehicle. Through March 13.

-The World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship continues at Trump National Doral golf course in Miami, Florida, for a purse of $9.5 million. Donald Trump owns this course and tour officials expect he will arrive on a helipad near the ninth tee during the final round of the tournament on March 6.

-ECONOMY: Colombia inflation (Feb.).

Sunday, March 6

-German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is interviewed on BBC Television’s flagship political program, the “Andrew Marr Show.” A possible U.K. exit from the EU is likely to head the agenda. The program starts at 09:00 in London (04:00 EST).

-Voters in Germany’s Hesse region, which includes Frankfurt, elect local-government officials, a gauge of support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party a week before elections in three other German states. Polls close at 18:00 CET in Frankfurt (12:00 EST).

-Benin holds a presidential election. Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, the ruling party’s nominee, is one of more than 30 candidates. President Thomas Yayi Boni won’t run and has pledged to step down after his second term ends this year. A second round of voting is scheduled for March 13 if no one wins a majority. Timing to be determined.

Monday, March 7

-Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, delivers the luncheon lecture at the annual policy conference of the National Association for Business Economics. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, managing director and chief operating officer of the World Bank, delivers the keynote address at 08:00 EST. Fischer speaks at 12:30. In Washington, through March 8.

-Deutsche Bank AG hosts the 24th Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference. Companies giving keynote presentations include AT&T Inc., CBS Corp., Snapchat Inc., Verizon Communications Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Liberty Media Corp. Through March 9 in Palm Beach, Florida. Click here for the schedule.

-Lael Brainard, a member of the U.S. Federal Reserve System’s Board of Governors, addresses the Institute of International Bankers’ annual conference in Washington. 12:00 EST.

-EU leaders hold an emergency summit on the refugee crisis at 15:00 CET in Brussels (09:00 EST).

-Euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss economic adjustment plans for Greece and Cyprus, budgets for 2016 and transparency. 15:00 CET in Brussels (09:00 EST).

-Spain’s Socialists and People’s Party hold executive-committee meetings to analyze their strategies for the approaching talks on forming a coalition government. Press conferences will follow. Timings to be determined.

-International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano gives a press conference at the United Nations agency’s quarterly meeting. He’ll speak about North Korea’s latest test, the Iran deal and next week’s fifth anniversary of the Fukushima meltdown. 14:30 CET in Vienna (08:30 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, showing estimates for oil and gas output from the biggest shale formations. 14:00 in Washington.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Israel minutes.

-ECONOMY: U.S. labor market conditions index (Feb.), U.S. consumer credit (Jan.), Taiwan trade data (Feb.), China foreign reserves (Feb.), Euro area sentix investor confidence (March), German factory orders (Jan.), Hungary budget balance (Feb.), South Africa gross and net reserves (Feb.), Israel foreign-currency balance (Feb.), Egypt foreign reserves (Feb.).

-EARNINGS: Urban Outfitters Inc.

Tuesday, March 8

-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe testify to U.K. lawmakers on Britain’s referendum on EU membership. In October, the BOE published a report on the economic implications of EU membership that didn’t consider the impact of a British exit. Timing to be determined.

-EU finance ministers meet to discuss taxation, fiscal sustainability, banking union, the recent G-20 meeting and the coordination of budget policy at 10:00 CET in Brussels (04:00 EST).

-Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and French President Francois Hollande hold a summit meeting. Press conference scheduled for 19:00 CET in Venice (13:00 EST).

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel fields questions about Germany’s role in Europe on a panel with newspaper editors in Baden-Wuerttemberg, one of three German regions holding state elections on March 13. Starts at 19:00 CET in Stuttgart (13:00 EST).

-The Montgomery Summit gathers together dozens of companies and investors to explore innovations in business and technology. Cisco Systems Inc. Chairman John Chambers is the keynote interview. Through March 9 in Santa Monica, CA.

-South African President Jacob Zuma makes a state visit to Nigeria. Through March 9.

-Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi hold primaries or caucuses in the U.S. presidential elections. Other states/territories holding elections this week are Washington, DC; Idaho; Kansas; Kentucky; Louisiana; Maine; Nebraska; and Puerto Rico.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on oil, gas and power. 12:00 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: NFIB U.S. small-business optimism index (Feb.), China trade surplus, imports, exports (Feb.), Taiwan inflation (Feb.), Japan final GDP (fourth quarter), euro area GDP (fourth quarter), Romania GDP (fourth quarter), Hungary GDP (fourth quarter), Hungary CPI (Feb.), South Africa current-account balance (fourth quarter), Turkey industrial production (Jan.).


Wednesday, March 9

-Syria peace talks are set to resume in Geneva, with UN envoy Staffan De Mistura hoping a fragile, partial cease-fire backed by the U.S. and Russia will help to move forward broader negotiations to end a war that has killed more than a quarter million people. Timing to be determined.

-Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases a report on its investments in 2015 at 10:00 CET (04:00 EST) in Oslo. A press conference will follow.

-Junior doctors in state-run National Health Service hospitals in England stage a 48-hour strike in opposition to U.K. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s decision to impose a new contract that cuts payments for weekend and evening work. Starts at 08:00 in London (03:00 EST).

-Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is scheduled to be sworn in as Portuguese president. 09:00 in Lisbon (04:00 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Canada rate decision, Malaysia rate decision, Georgia rate decision.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. wholesale inventories (Jan.), World Agricultural and Demand Estimate WASDE report (Feb.), Brazil IPCA inflation (Feb.), Mexico inflation (Feb.), U.K. industrial production (Jan.), U.K. manufacturing production (Jan.), U.K. NIESR GDP estimate (Feb.), Czech CPI (Feb.), Ukraine CPI (Feb.), Nigeria GDP (fourth quarter).

-EARNINGS: Square Inc., Box, Inc., FuelCell Energy Inc., Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Adecco SA, Deutsche Post AG, E.ON SE, Prudential Plc, Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA.

Thursday, March 10

-European Central Bank rate decision. The ECB Governing Council meets to review interest rates and stimulus programs. President Mario Draghi gives a press conference 45 minutes after the 13:45 CET decision (07:45 EST).

-U.S. President Barack Obama hosts a state dinner for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House. Trudeau will be the first Canadian prime minister so honored in 19 years.

-Oral arguments begin in the Barclays market manipulation case. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission imposed civil penalties of $488 million against Barclays for alleged manipulative trading. The case at the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California is FERC v. Barclays Bank Plc in Sacramento. Timing to be determined.

-Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gives introductory remarks at the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research conference in Ottawa. 16:15 EST.

-Myanmar’s new parliament will announce the three candidates vying to become the nation’s next president, revealing the closely guarded secret of the person Aung Sang Suu Kyi has chosen as her proxy. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy trounced the military-backed ruling party in November, but the Nobel Peace Prize winner is constitutionally barred from holding the office. Time to be determined.

-Brazil’s central bank posts the minutes from its latest rate-setting meeting on March 1-2. The central bank publishes the minutes on its websiteat 08:30 in Brasilia (06:30 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Peru rate decision, New Zealand rate decision, South Korea rate decision.

-ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. quarterly services survey (4Q), U.S. household net worth (4Q), U.S. budget statement (Feb.), Brazil retail sales (Jan.), Colombia GDP (4Q), China inflation (Feb.), China new lending, money supply (Feb.) anytime March 10-15, Germany trade data (Jan.), Estonia GDP (fourth quarter), Portugal CPI (Feb.), South Africa manufacturing production (Jan.), Israel GDP(fourth quarter), Egypt CPI(Feb.), Turkey current-account balance (Jan.).

-EARNINGS: Dollar General Corp., Linde AG, Aviva Plc, Carrefour SA, SandRidge Energy Inc.

Friday, March 11

-PJM Interconnection LLC, operator of the largest U.S. power grid, will announce the results of an electricity capacity auction. The results may show the impact of recent plant retirements and PJM’s sharp cuts to its long-term demand growth forecasts. Results are expected after 16:00 EST from Audubon, PA.

-The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issues its weekly report on futures and options positions for oil. 15:30 EST in Washington.

-The Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count is released. 12:00 local time in Houston. (13:00 EST).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Poland rate decision.

-ECONOMY: U.S. import-price index (Feb.), Canada unemployment (Feb.), Mexico industrial production (Jan.), U.K. trade report (Jan.), U.K. construction output (Jan.), Romania CPI (Feb.), Serbia CPI (Feb.), Russian weekly CPI (March 9), Portugal trade balance(Jan.).

-EARNINGS: Pampa Energia SA, Old Mutual Plc.

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Andorra (Fitch), Bosnia & Herzegovina (S&P), Croatia (Moody’s), EU (Moody’s), Finland (DBRS & Fitch), Greece (Fitch), Ireland (DBRS), Kazakhstan (S&P), Rwanda (S&P), Switzerland (Moody’s).

Saturday, March 12

-NCAA college basketball conference tournaments are held to decide who plays in the March Madness final tournament. Conference championships played today include: the Atlantic Coast in Washington, DC; the Big East in NYC; the Big 12 in Kansas City, MO; and the Pacific-12 in Las Vegas. Final selection for March Madness spots happens on March 13.

-ECONOMY: China industrial production, retail sales (Feb.)

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