There's a Science of Snap Political Judgments—and Trump and Clinton Are Winning

The good-government fantasists among us would like to believe that we make political choices on rational grounds, through careful weighing of the issues and sophisticated analysis of the candidates’ qualifications (this seemed to be Jeb Bush’s concept). But no one watching an American election—particularly this year's carnival of a contest—believes that this is actually what takes place. And so the question stands: How do voters come to make their political choices?

Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman is the de facto dean of this field. Five years ago, he published a book called Thinking Fast and Slow, which encapsulated his decades of research on human cognition into a simple insight, embodied by the title of the book. There are two systems, he posited, one conscious and slow and involved, the other devoted to jumping to conclusions, mostly subconsciously. Superficial impressions and simplifications inevitably fill in gaps where we may lack actual evidence.