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China's Debt Seen Rising Through 2019, Peaking at 283% of GDP

  • History points to financial crisis or slowdown: Goldman Sachs
  • China's high savings rate may support higher debt-to-GDP ratio
A graph shows the movement of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) Component Index at a securities brokerage in Beijing, China, on Monday, Jan. 18, 2016. China's economy slowed in December, capping the weakest quarter of growth since the 2009 global recession, as the Communist leadership struggles to manage a transition to consumer-led expansion.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

China’s ratio of debt to its economic size is seen climbing for at least another four years, underscoring the risks facing policy makers as they strive to prevent a deeper slowdown without triggering a credit blowout.

Seven out of 12 economists see the debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio increasing through at least 2019, with four expecting a peak in 2020 or later, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Debt will peak at 283 percent of GDP, according to the median estimate of eight economists.