U.S. GDP, Carney, Women's Forum: Week Ahead Feb. 20-27

The U.S. economy probably closed out 2015 in weaker fashion than the government first estimated, with the latest report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product now projected to show the slowest growth in almost two years.

Purchases of previously owned U.S. homes eased in January while orders for durable goods increased, separate reports probably will show.

Nevada and South Carolina hold nominating contests for U.S. presidential candidates.

Jamaica, Iran, Ireland and Niger hold elections. The Global Women’s Forum takes place in Dubai.

Finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Shanghai to discuss the global economy.

Hungary and Turkey set interest rates.

Companies releasing earnings include Home Depot Inc., HP Inc., Target Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc, Airbus Group SE, Deutsche Telekom AG and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV.

The Mobile World Congress takes place in Barcelona.

SATURDAY, FEB. 20

-South Carolina holds its Republican primary. The state is historically significant in U.S. presidential elections because it has a near-perfect record in picking the GOP’s eventual nominee.

-Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton face off in Nevada’s Democratic caucuses. Current polls show them neck and neck, and the victor will get critical momentum going into South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Feb. 27. Click here for Bloomberg’s 2016 Delegate Tracker.

-The Practising Law Institute hosts the second day of the “U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Speaks in 2016" conference in Washington. Click here for the conference details. Starts at 08:45

-Libyan lawmakers vote on whether to approve a national unity government. Timing to be determined.

SUNDAY, FEB. 21

-Niger holds the first round of its presidential election, with President Mahamadou Issoufou, who was elected in 2011, among the 15 candidates. A second round of voting is scheduled for next month if no one wins a majority. Timing to be determined.

-Actor Gerard Butler serves as grand marshal for the 58th annual Daytona 500, Nascar’s marquee event, at the Daytona International Speedway in Florida. He will deliver the most famous words in motor sports: “Drivers, start your engines.” 13:00 EST.

-The Philippine election commission will hold its first presidential debate, in Cagayan de Oro city. All five contenders seeking to succeed President Benigno Aquino are expected to participate. 17:00 (04:00 EST).

MONDAY, FEB. 22

-The Mobile World Congress starts in Barcelona and runs through Feb. 25. Speakers include Facebook Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg, Ford Motor Co. CEO Mark Fields and Vodafone Group Plc CEO Vittorio Colao. Click here for the agenda.

-U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron is likely to address Parliament following a European Union summit at which he was seeking a deal on renegotiated membership terms ahead of a referendum on whether to stay in the bloc. 15:30 in London (10:30 EST).

-IHS CERAWeek holds its 35th annual forum. Chaired by Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the event draws executives, government officials, finance experts and other industry members from more than 50 countries. Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto will deliver the keynote address at 13:10 local time (14:10 EST). Click here for event details. Through Feb. 26 in Houston.

-The governor of Japan’s Fukushima prefecture, Masao Uchibori, speaks about challenges facing the region five years after the 2011 tsunami and nuclear accident. Timing to be determined.

-The New York Stock Exchange begins to roll out its new core trading technology, called Pillar, on its Arca exchange. Eventually, all its U.S. markets will use the system.

-The U.S. International Trade Commission is scheduled to disclose whether it will review or let stand a judge’s findings that Nvidia Corp. infringed Samsung Electronics Co. patents related to graphics-processing chips. The case is part of a broader battle over licensing costs. An announcement is scheduled at 17:00 in Washington.

-United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon will visit Burundi, where hundreds of people have died during a 10-month political crisis. Timing to be determined.

-European Central Bank Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speaks in Stuttgart, Germany. 19:00 CET (13:00 EST).

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.

-ECONOMY: Chicago Fed national activity index (Jan.), U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (Feb.), Euro-Area PMIs (Feb.), Mexico retail sales (Dec.).

-EARNINGS: Allergan Plc, Motorola Solutions Inc., Tenet Healthcare Corp., Fitbit Inc., On Deck Capital Inc., AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., BlueScope Steel Ltd., DBS Group Holdings Ltd., HSBC Holdings Plc.

TUESDAY, FEB. 23

-Purchases of previously owned U.S. homes probably eased in January after jumping a month earlier by the most on record, economists project the National Association of Realtors to report. 10:00 in Washington.

-Consumer confidence in the U.S. probably cooled in February, figures from the Conference Board are forecast to show. While households largely dismissed volatility in equities last month, economists will focus on the report’s labor market gauges to see whether an easing of conditions in January extended into February. 10:00 in Washington.

-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testifies to lawmakers about the outlook for the U.K. economy and monetary policy. The BOE cut its near-term growth and inflation projections this month, and economists have pushed back forecasts for the timing of a rate increase. 10:00 in London (05:00 EST).

-Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan speaks on “Monetary Policy Among Euro-Area Neighbors.” 12:15 CET in Frankfurt (06:15 EST).

-European Central Bank Single Supervisory Mechanism Chair Daniele Nouy speaks at the Deutsche Bank Capital Forum. 13:30 in London (08:30 EST).
 

-The Global Women’s Forum takes place in Dubai. Speakers include International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Queen Rania of Jordan and Chilean President Michelle Bachelet. Click here for more information and the schedule. Through Feb. 24.

-Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi, the Saudi Arabian minister of petroleum and mineral resources, will deliver a special address on the second day of IHS CERAWeek in Houston at 8:50 local time (09:50 EST).

-The Credit Suisse Energy Summit takes place in Vail, Colorado. Speakers include executives from Marathon Petroleum Corp., Valero Energy Corp., Devon Energy Corp., Phillips 66 and Pioneer Natural Resources Corp. Through Feb. 25.

-French President Francois Hollande begins a three-day visit to Peru, Argentina and Uruguay. Timing to be determined.

-Registered Republicans will vote in their presidential caucuses in Nevada.

-U.S. President Barack Obama is statutorily required to send Congress a plan today to close the terrorist prison at Cuba’s Guantanamo Bay and transfer its 91 remaining detainees.

-Jefferies LLC will host a Media & Communications Conference with presentations from public and private media, telecom and Internet sectors. Confirmed participants include Home Box Office Inc. Chairman and CEO Richard Plepler and New York Times Co. CEO/President Mark Thompson. Through Feb. 24 in New York City.

-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther L. George is interviewed by Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Radio. Timing to be determined.

-CEO Jamie Dimon and other top executives speak at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s annual investor day. 08:30 in New York City.

-CENTRAL BANKS: Hungary rate decision, Turkey rate decision

-ECONOMY: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index (Dec.), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Feb.), Hong Kong inflation (Jan.), Hong Kong unemployment (Jan.), Germany GDP (fourth quarter), Germany Ifo business confidence (Feb.), Poland unemployment rate (Jan.), Turkey capacity utilization (Feb.), Brazil IPCA-15 inflation (Feb.), Brazil current account (Jan.), Mexico GDP (4Q).

-EARNINGS: Ecolab Inc., J.M. Smucker Co., First Solar Inc., Macy’s Inc., Home Depot Inc., Edison International, BHP Billiton Ltd., Caltex Australia Ltd., Oil Search Ltd., John Wood Group Plc, Qantas Airways Ltd., Swiss Re AG, Standard Chartered Plc, Endesa SA, Danone SA.

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 24

-Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks at a Money Marketeers dinner. Click here for more information. 19:00 in New York City.

-U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy
and U.S. Energy Department Secretary Ernest Moniz are scheduled to speak at IHS CERAWeek in Houston at 08:50 (09:50 EST) and 12:30, respectively.

-Lawrence Schembri, deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, will speak at 12:50 at the Guelph Chamber of Commerce in Ontario. His remarks will be published on the Central Bank’s website at 12:35 EST.

-U.S. Cabinet secretaries including John Kerry of the State Department and Jeh Johnson from Homeland Security testify before Congress about their fiscal year 2017 budget requests. Starting at 09:30 in Washington.

-The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress convenes in Beijing to set the agenda and choose delegates ahead of next month’s annual meeting. Members will also discuss a draft law on deep-sea resource exploration. Through Feb. 26.

-The European Commission publishes economic analysis and recommendations for each EU nation. The focus will be on assessments of Italy, France and Spain because of difficulties with their budgets, debt or deficit levels. Timing in Brussels to be determined.

-Germany’s Bundesbank publishes its annual report. 12:00 CET in Frankfurt (06:00 EST).

-Argentine President Mauricio Macri and French President Francois Hollande are due to hold a joint news conference at 16:00 in Buenos Aires (14:00 EST).

-South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presents the country’s 2016-17 national budget to lawmakers. 14:00 in Cape Town (07:00 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its oil inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. Markit services PMI (Feb. prelim.), U.S. new-home sales (Jan.), Singapore GDP (4Q), Hong Kong GDP (4Q), Taiwan money supply (Jan.), Nigeria GDP (fourth quarter), Czech sentiment (Feb.), Croatia inflation (Jan.), Ukraine industrial production (Jan.), Brazil total outstanding loans (Jan.), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (Feb.15).

-EARNINGS: Target Corp., Lowe’s Cos., Chesapeake Energy Corp., TJX Cos., L Brands Inc., Transocean Ltd., Newfield Exploration Co., Salesforce.com Inc., HP Inc., Noble Group Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Dynegy Inc., Encana Corp., Continental Resources Inc., Concho Resources Inc., Iberdrola SP, Petrofac Ltd., Saipem SpA, Airbus Group SE, Peugeot SA, Iberdrola SA, Fresenius SE, Fresenius Medical Care AG.

THURSDAY, FEB. 25

-Orders for durable goods in the U.S. probably rose in January for the first time in three months, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. Bookings excluding transportation equipment are projected to drop, underscoring weakness in manufacturing tied to tepid global demand, oil industry cutbacks and a stronger dollar. 08:30 in Washington.

-Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will give opening remarks at the bank’s 2016 Banking Outlook Conference, entitled “Caution: Winding Road Ahead." 08:15 in Atlanta.

-Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John C. Williams will give a talk and take questions at New York University Stern’s Center for Global Economy and Business. Click here for details. 12:00 in New York City.

-The Latin Finance 11th Cumbre Financiera Mexicana summit brings together issuers and investors. Event begins at 08:00 in Mexico City (09:00 EST). Click here for details.

-EU home affairs ministers meet to discuss the possible extension of internal border checks, the policing of external boundaries and a proposed European coast guard. 10:00 CET in Brussels (04:00 EST).

-Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa delivers the provincial government’s budget in Toronto. Timing to be determined.

-Jamaica holds general elections, which are largely a contest between the governing People’s National Party and the opposition Jamaica Labour Party. Polls show Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller’s government will be returned for another term. Polling stations are open from 08:00 to 16:00 EST.

-U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual Agriculture Outlook Forum starts in Arlington, Virginia. Speakers include Howard Buffett, chairman and CEO of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation, and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. Click here for details. Through Feb. 26.

-Bank of Japan policy board member Takahide Kiuchi, who opposed the expansion of easing in January and has proposed that the BOJ buy fewer Japanese government bonds, gives a speech and talks to the press in southern Japan. 10:30 in Kagoshima (02/24 20:30 EST).

-The $6.1 million Honda Classic golf tournament begins at the PGA National Resort & Spa’s Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Tee times and pairings here. Through Feb. 28.

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas inventory report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), FHFA home-price index (Dec., 4Q), Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (Feb.), Hong Kong exports, imports, trade balance (Jan.), Taiwan unemployment rate (Jan.), South Korea consumer confidence (Feb.), South Africa PPI (Jan.), South Africa unemployment rate (fourth quarter), U.K. GDP (fourth quarter), German GfK consumer confidence (March), euro-area M3 money supply (Jan.), Italian consumer confidence (Feb.), Bloomberg Turkey Economic Survey (Feb.), Brazil unemployment (Jan.).

-EARNINGS: Campbell Soup Co., Best Buy Co., Kohl’s Corp., Gap Inc., EOG Resources Inc., Intuit Inc., Kraft Heinz Co., SBA Communications Corp., Baidu Inc., South32 Ltd., United Co. Rusal, Apache Corp., Engie SA, Repsol SA, Premier Oil Plc, Seadrill Ltd., SEB AB, Axa SA, Deutsche Telekom AG, Bayer AG, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Ferrovial SA, Henkel AG, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, British American Tobacco Plc.

FRIDAY, FEB. 26

-The U.S. economy probably expanded at a slower pace than initially estimated on further weakness in business spending on structures and equipment, economists forecast the Commerce Department to report. The median forecast calls for an annualized 0.5 percent gain in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, the weakest in almost two years and down from a previous estimate of 0.7 percent. 08:30 in Washington.

-Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams; Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard, members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Maurice Obstfeld, economic counselor and director of research at the International Monetary Fund; and Peter Praet, executive board member of the ECB, participate in the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Click here for the schedule.

-The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors convene in Shanghai to discuss boosting growth in the face of global economic headwinds and the adoption of negative interest rates in some countries. Through Feb. 27.

-Ireland holds a general election, with polls suggesting Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael party will struggle to retain power with its current Labour coalition partner. Polls close at 22:00 in Dublin (17:00 EST); vote counting starts the following day.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of the country’s four main business and trade lobbies hold an annual private meeting, followed by a joint news conference at 12:45 CET in Munich (06:45 EST).

-Iran holds elections for parliament and an assembly that will elect the next supreme leader. Moderate President Hassan Rouhani had been hoping to ride the enthusiasm generated by the end of economic sanctions to fill parliament with like-minded politicians, but a vetting council of clerics rejected many reformist candidates. Timing to be determined.

-Venezuela is expected to make a $1.5 billion payment on foreign debt as concerns mount that President Nicolas Maduro is heading closer to default in the wake of low oil prices.

-The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issues its weekly report on futures and options positions for oil. 15:30 in Washington.

-The Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count is released. 12:00 in Houston. (13:00 EST).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Chile rate decision

-ECONOMY: U.S. advanced goods trade balance (Jan.), U.S. personal income/spending (Jan.), U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment (Feb. final), China property prices (Jan.), Taiwan industrial production (Jan.), Japan consumer prices (Jan.), German inflation (Feb.), Euro-area economic confidence (Feb.), France GDP (fourth quarter), France inflation (Feb.), Spanish inflation (Feb.), Hungary unemployment rate (Jan.), Slovenia GDP (fourth quarter), Croatia GDP (fourth quarter), Brazil IGP-M inflation (Feb.), Brazil primary budget balance (Jan.), Mexico unemployment (Jan.).

-EARNINGS: American Tower Corp., Sempra Energy, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., Liberty Media Corp., Husky Energy Inc., Sandfire Resources NL, Range Resources Corp., Southwestern Energy Co., Eni SpA, BASF SE, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Telefonica SA, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA.

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Austria (Moody’s), Azerbaijan (Fitch), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Moody’s), Germany (Moody’s), Greece (Moody’s), Iraq (S&P), Luxembourg (Moody’s), Netherlands (DBRS), Oman (Moody’s), Turkey (Fitch).

SATURDAY, FEB. 27

-Registered Democrats in South Carolina vote in the state’s presidential primary.

(Update to remove duplicate reference to oil inventory report on Thursday. Moved Honda Classic golf tournament to Thursday.)