Key U.S. Recession Predictor Is Missing From Nation's Highways

  • Truck cargo, a barometer of recent recessions, keeps rising
  • Industrial freight falls while consumer goods buoy shipments

Assessing the Risk of Recession

As a serial entrepreneur based in Greenwich, Connecticut, Bradley Jacobs hangs out with the big-money crowd dominated by hedge fund and private-equity types. The tenor of their conversations, he’s observed, has suddenly grown pessimistic with many now fretting the economy’s sinking into recession. As the owner of a trucking business (his latest venture), Jacobs also hears directly from a very different set: retailers across America. The buzz from them is decidedly more upbeat, what he calls “closet positive.”

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