U.K. EU Membership Referendum Voting Intention: Summary

Following is a summary of U.K. EU membership referendum voter intention surveys from BMG, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, ORB, Survation, TNS Omnibus and YouGov.

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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
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June 23        YouGov         52%         48%            0%    Online        4%
June 22    Ipsos Mori         52%         48%            0%     Phone        4%
June 22        YouGov         51%         49%           n/a    Online        2%
June 22        ComRes         48%         42%           11%     Phone        6%
June 22   TNS Omnibus         41%         43%           16%    Online       -2%
June 20     Survation         45%         44%           11%     Phone        1%
June 19        YouGov         42%         44%           13%    Online       -2%
June 18     Survation         45%         42%           13%     Phone        4%
June 17        YouGov         44%         43%           13%    Online        1%
June 16        YouGov         42%         44%           14%    Online       -2%
June 15           BMG         41%         51%            9%    Online      -10%
================================================================================
Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
June 15     Survation         42%         45%           13%     Phone       -3%
June 14    Ipsos Mori         47%         53%           n/a     Phone       -6%
June 13        ComRes         45%         45%           10%     Phone        0%
June 13   TNS Omnibus         40%         47%           13%    Online       -7%
June 13        YouGov         39%         46%           15%    Online       -7%
June 13           ICM         42%         46%           12%    Online       -4%
June 13           ICM         43%         46%           11%     Phone       -3%
June 10        YouGov         42%         43%           15%    Online       -1%
June 9            ORB         47%         53%            0%    Online       -6%
June 6         YouGov         43%         42%           15%    Online        1%
June 5            ICM         41%         45%           14%    Online       -4%
June 3         YouGov         41%         45%           15%    Online       -4%
May 31         YouGov         41%         41%           17%    Online        0%
May 30            ICM         41%         44%           15%    Online       -3%
May 29            ICM         38%         40%           21%     Phone       -2%
May 25            BMG         44%         45%           12%    Online       -1%
May 24      Survation         44%         38%           18%     Phone        7%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
May 24         YouGov         41%         41%           17%    Online        0%
May 23    TNS Omnibus         41%         43%           16%    Online       -2%
May 22            ICM         42%         40%           18%    Online        2%
May 17         ComRes         51%         41%            8%     Phone       10%
May 17         YouGov         44%         40%           15%    Online        4%
May 16     Ipsos Mori         48%         35%           17%     Phone       13%
May 15            ICM         41%         42%           17%    Online       -1%
May 15            ICM         43%         34%           23%     Phone        9%
May 12    TNS Omnibus         38%         41%           21%    Online       -3%
May 8             ICM         41%         41%           19%    Online        0%
May 6          YouGov         42%         40%           19%    Online        2%
May 3             ICM         40%         41%           19%    Online       -1%
April 29          ORB         50%         50%            0%    Online        0%
April 28  TNS Omnibus         39%         36%           26%    Online        3%
April 26          BMG         43%         45%           13%    Online       -2%
April 26       YouGov         41%         42%           17%    Online       -1%
April 26    Survation         45%         38%           17%     Phone        8%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
April 24          ICM         42%         41%           17%    Online        1%
April 19       ComRes         51%         40%            9%     Phone       11%
April 18   Ipsos Mori         43%         35%           22%     Phone        8%
April 17          ICM         40%         39%           20%    Online        1%
April 17          ICM         44%         36%           19%     Phone        8%
April 14  TNS Omnibus         38%         34%           28%    Online        4%
April 14       YouGov         40%         39%           21%    Online        1%
April 12       YouGov         39%         39%           22%    Online        0%
April 11  TNS Omnibus         35%         35%           30%    Online        0%
April 10       ComRes         45%         38%           17%     Phone        7%
April 10          ICM         40%         40%           20%    Online        0%
April 7        YouGov         40%         38%           21%    Online        2%
April 4        YouGov         39%         38%           23%    Online        1%
April 3           ICM         40%         38%           22%    Online        2%
March 29  TNS Omnibus         35%         35%           30%    Online        0%
March 29          BMG         41%         45%           14%    Online       -4%
March 28          ORB         51%         49%            0%    Online        2%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
March 22   Ipsos Mori         42%         36%           22%     Phone        6%
March 19    Survation         46%         35%           19%     Phone       11%
March 20       ComRes         48%         41%           11%     Phone        7%
March 20          ICM         41%         43%           17%    Online       -2%
March 14  TNS Omnibus         36%         36%           28%    Online        0%
March 13          ICM         43%         41%           16%    Online        2%
March 6           ICM         40%         41%           19%    Online       -1%
March 3        YouGov         40%         37%           23%    Online        3%
March 2        YouGov         40%         35%           25%    Online        5%
March 1        YouGov         39%         37%           24%    Online        2%
Feb. 29           ICM         41%         41%           18%    Online        0%
Feb. 25           ORB         48%         52%            0%    Online       -4%
Feb. 25        YouGov         41%         38%           21%    Online        3%
Feb. 23           BMG         44%         41%           15%    Online        3%
Feb. 23        YouGov         37%         38%           25%    Online       -1%
Feb. 22        ComRes         51%         39%           10%     Phone       12%
Feb. 22           ICM         42%         40%           17%    Online        2%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
Feb. 20     Survation         48%         33%           19%     Phone       15%
Feb. 16    Ipsos Mori         54%         36%           10%     Phone       18%
Feb. 15   TNS Omnibus         36%         39%           25%    Online       -3%
Feb. 14           ICM         43%         39%           18%    Online        4%
Feb. 14        ComRes         49%         41%           10%     Phone        8%
Feb. 7            ICM         41%         42%           17%    Online       -1%
Feb. 4         YouGov         36%         45%           19%    Online       -9%
Jan. 31           ICM         42%         39%           19%    Online        3%
Jan. 28        YouGov         38%         42%           20%    Online       -4%
Jan. 25           BMG         44%         42%           13%    Online        2%
Jan. 25    Ipsos Mori         55%         36%            9%     Phone       19%
Jan. 24           ICM         41%         41%           18%    Online        0%
Jan. 24        ComRes         54%         36%           10%     Phone       18%
Jan. 21           ORB         52%         48%            0%    Online        4%
Jan. 17           ICM         42%         40%           17%    Online        2%
Jan. 16     Survation         38%         42%           21%    Online       -4%
Jan. 10           ICM         44%         38%           18%    Online        6%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
Dec. 18        YouGov         41%         42%           17%    Online       -1%
Dec. 17           ORB         52%         48%            0%    Online        4%
Dec. 14    Ipsos Mori         58%         32%           10%     Phone       26%
Dec. 13           ICM         42%         41%           17%    Online        1%
Dec. 13        ComRes         56%         35%            8%     Phone       21%
Dec. 6            ICM         43%         39%           17%    Online        4%
Dec. 3      Survation         40%         42%           18%    Online       -2%
Nov. 29           ICM         43%         39%           17%    Online        4%
Nov. 24        YouGov         41%         41%           18%    Online        0%
Nov. 22           ICM         45%         38%           17%    Online        7%
Nov. 19           ORB         48%         52%            0%    Online       -4%
Nov. 17           BMG         39%         39%           22%    Online        0%
Nov. 17     Survation         43%         40%           18%    Online        3%
Nov. 15           ICM         43%         38%           19%    Online        5%
Nov. 11     Survation         39%         43%           19%    Online       -4%
Nov. 8            ICM         46%         38%           16%    Online        8%
Nov. 1            ICM         44%         38%           18%    Online        6%
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Survey                     Remain            Wouldn’t Vote/    Survey    Remain
End Date     Pollster       in EU    Leave EU    Don’t know    Method     Lead*
================================================================================
Oct. 29        YouGov         39%         41%           19%    Online       -2%
Oct. 25           ICM         45%         38%           17%    Online        7%
Oct. 25           ORB         53%         47%            0%    Online        6%
Oct. 23        YouGov         42%         39%           19%    Online        3%
Oct. 20        YouGov         42%         40%           17%    Online        2%
Oct. 19    Ipsos Mori         52%         36%           12%     Phone       16%
Oct. 18           ICM         44%         38%           18%    Online        6%
Oct. 11           ICM         45%         36%           18%    Online        9%
Oct. 7            ICM         44%         39%           17%    Online        5%
Oct. 4            ICM         42%         38%           20%    Online        4%
Sept. 27          ICM         45%         38%           17%    Online        7%
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Official question wording: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

* = Difference between the percentage saying they will vote

"Remain in EU" and the percentage saying they will vote "Leave EU".

A minus sign indicates a "Leave EU" lead. In March 2016 Ipsos MORI changed their question wording as the date for the referendum has been set. From March 22 results for Ipsos Mori refer to responses to the question how respondents will vote on June 23 and are not comparable to earlier responses. For June 14, 2016 survey, Ipsos MORI changed the base to all registered to vote and filtered by likely turnout. For June 15, 2016 survey, BMG changed the base to "all respondents who are likely vote in the EU referendum, with a half weight applied for those who didn’t vote in the General Elecion". ICM, ComRes, ORB results are based on all respondents. Survation results are based on respondents who are likely to vote, with refused removed. TNS uses Likelihood to Vote (LTV) model in May 23, 2016 survey. TNS uses registered to vote and Likelihood to Vote (LTV) model in June 13, 2016 survey. For June 22, 2016 survey, TNS uses base "all adults in UK 18 + registered to vote. Including those leaning in a direction." For June 22, 2016 survey, ComRes uses base "All UK adults (turnout weighted)". For June 22, 2016 survey, YouGov uses turnout weight base and don’t knows adjusted.

SOURCE: BMG, ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI, ORB, Survation, TNS Omnibus, YouGov

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