Guggenheim's Minerd Says S&P 500 to Fall to 1,650 This Quarter

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall to 1,650 this quarter, as investors seek havens amid uncertainty about oil and China’s economy, said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners LLC.

“Right now 1,650 is a fairly easy target,” Minerd said Wednesday in a telephone interview from Davos, Switzerland. “I think sometime in the first quarter.”

The S&P 500 Index fell as much as 3.7 percent on Wednesday and was off 2.7 percent at 1:06 p.m. in New York, to about 1,830. At 1,650, it would be down almost 10 percent more.

“We took out support today,” Minerd said. “Until the Chinese revalue their currency, we’re just going to have this overhang of fear.”

Minerd said oil may fall to as low as $20 a barrel but could rebound swiftly as investors with short positions, wagers that prices will decline, cash in their bets. The Federal Reserve will probably wait until at least June for another interest rate increase, he said.

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