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Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Turnaround for Oil-Battered Ruble

  • Nomura's Petrov cites homegrown demand from savers, companies
  • Others say worst not over for ruble ensnared by oil, recession
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Oil Markets: Where Are Prices Headed?

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The most-accurate ruble forecaster sees a turnaround for Russia’s currency as oil prices stem declines and local banks slow dollar purchases.

After the currency suffered losses of 20 percent in 2015 and closed at a record low last week, the worst is over for ruble traders, according to Nomura International Plc’s Dmitri Petrov. The analyst, whose team’s predictions were the best among 34 forecasters ranked by Bloomberg on a four-quarter rolling basis, expects a recovery that could make the exchange rate as strong as 67 against the dollar over the next three months from 74.7475 Friday and bring it to 65 by year-end. That compares with a consensus that puts the ruble at 69 for most of 2016.