American stocks will decline again in 2016, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds will hold below 2.5 percent and Hillary Clinton will be elected president, according to a list of predictions published annually by Byron Wien of Blackstone Group LP.
Weak earnings hurt by margin pressure and a contraction in valuations will spur a down year in U.S. equities -- which along with a soft economy will support government bonds, wrote Wien. His prediction for flat Treasury rates came true in 2015 while calls for an outperformance in U.S. stocks over international equities flopped. Wien, vice chairman of multi-asset investing at Blackstone, has published the “surprises” list since 1986.
