Leading U.S. Economic Indicators Increased 0.4% in November

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The index of U.S. leading economic indicators increased in November, buoyed by more home construction permits and higher stock prices.

The Conference Board’s measure of the economic outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.4 percent after climbing 0.6 percent in October, the New York-based research group said Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.1 percent increase.

Five of the 10 indicators of the composite gauge advanced. They also included a favorable interest-rate spread and pickup in consumer goods orders.

“Although the six-month growth rate of the LEI has moderated, the economic outlook for the final quarter of the year and into the new year remains positive,” Ataman Ozyildirim, director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from no change to a 0.5 percent advance.

LEI Components November Net Contribution
Building permits 0.32
Interest-rate spread 0.24
Stock prices 0.11
Leading credit index 0.09
Consumer goods orders 0.02
Average workweek 0.00
Consumer expectations -0.01
Capital goods orders -0.02
Jobless claims -0.08
ISM new orders -0.13

The Conference Board’s coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in November after a 0.2 percent increase the prior month. The gauge is determined by growth in industrial production, sales, payrolls and incomes -- the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions.

The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.3 percent in November after a 0.2 percent advance the month before.

(Adds table of contributions.)
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