Cruz Poised to Steal Even More Trump Supporters in Iowa

Ted Cruz shot to a 10-point lead over Donald Trump in the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, putting him in prime position to win the first-in-the-nation Republican caucus on Feb. 1. But the Texas Senator may be even stronger than the top-line numbers suggest. A deeper look into the poll’s crosstabs suggests that Cruz is poised to draw away even more of Trump’s supporters—and that Trump may have difficulty luring those who currently favor Cruz.

Until now, Trump’s great source of strength has been his support from voters without a college degree. One reason Trump has been able to maintain an overall lead in most national polls since last summer is that, as Ron Brownstein has pointed out, blue-collar workers have coalesced around him, while white-collar workers with at least a college degree have split their support among several candidates. However, the new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll shows that Cruz, for the first time, is winning both non-college voters (Cruz 32, Trump 23, Ben Carson 13) and college voters (Cruz 29, Trump 18, Carson 12) alike.