Poll That Called Argentina First Round Sees Macri Runoff Victory

  • Macri has 7.7 percentage-point lead over Scioli ahead of vote
  • Among 11 percent undecided voters, Macri has better image

The only pollster to accurately predict the outcome of the first round of Argentina’s elections is now auguring a comfortable victory for the opposition’s Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s runoff vote.

Macri, who is vowing to dismantle President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s economic model of currency controls and trade protectionism, has 47 percent of intended votes against 39.3 percent for the ruling party’s Daniel Scioli, who advocates making slower and fewer changes. After projecting the 11 percent of voters who remain undecided, Macri’s lead rises to 8.8 percent, with Elypsis expecting him to capture 54.4 percent versus 45.6 percent for Scioli.

Elypsis, an economic research firm that only began political polling this year, correctly detected a late surge in votes for Macri ahead of the Oct. 25 first round. He garnered 34 percent against 37 percent for Scioli, confounding other polls that expected Scioli to win by at least 10 percentage points.

While the election could still be swayed by 11 percent of voters who remain undecided, Elypsis says Macri has a better image among those voters than of Scioli. The current mayor of Buenos Aires has a 42 percent positive image and a 20 percent negative image compared to Scioli whose positive and negative images are the same at 33 percent.

All but a few surveys by minor pollsters expect a victory for Macri. The average of four polls seen by Bloomberg, that includes Elypsis’ latest survey, sees an average of 47.9 percent of intended votes for Macri against 41.3 percent for Scioli.

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