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The Four Books You Must Read If You Really Want to Understand Currency Markets

Perfect summer reading

Because the exchange rate is a relative, not absolute, price, the SNB’s predicament is indicative of far more than domestic issues. In this particular case, the franc's strength also points to a regional misalignment that has vexed Swiss authorities for quite a while: how to retain Switzerland’s traditional standing as a safe harbor and its role as a home for foreign capital while the European Central Bank has adopted experimental monetary policies involving large-scale purchase of securities and significant expansions of its balance sheet. — Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg View

We think long USD-CHF and short CHF-JPY spot positions look attractive regardless of whether the Greek political crisis is resolved. We forecast USD-CHF to appreciate to 1.03 in Q3 2015, which the market seems to underprice by assigning only [an] 8 percent probability and move higher to 1.08 in Q1 2016 and 1.11 in Q2 2016. — Barclays