Bond-Market Game of Chicken With Fed Is Riskier Than Ever

If the Federal Reserve is really so intent on raising interest rates this year, why is Wall Street chopping its forecasts for bond yields?

For all the hand-wringing over the recent selloff that wiped out about $1.2 trillion in value from the global bond market, the fixed-income market’s best and brightest have actually taken down their year-end estimates for Treasuries in four of the past five months.