RBA PREVIEW: Explicit Easing Bias Could See Aussie Test 0.7533Michael G. Wilson
AUD/USD may test the 0.7533 April low by Friday if the RBA adopts an explicit easing bias today, according to Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
- OIS rate-cut probability at 19% and leveraged fund short positioning have moved nearer to neutral in recent weeks, and AUD/USD needs new central-bank catalyst to go lower
- Weak capex data could allow RBA board to revise its house view closer to mid-May comments from Deputy Gov. Philip Lowe
- RBA minutes last month predicted “dwelling investment would continue to grow strongly in the next few quarters”; that contrasts with yday’s building approvals
- RBA will leave benchmark rate unchanged this afternoon, according to all 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; announcement due 2:30pm Sydney time
- Were the RBA to imply an easing bias but stop short of making it explicit, a rally to 0.7794, the 50-DMA, may be seen by May 12, dependent on U.S. nonfarm payrolls
- AUD/USD now steady at 0.7606
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