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The theory goes that commodity prices move in “supercycles” or bursts of phenomenal surges, followed by longer, less-exciting periods. As such, a barrel of oil at $50 is, well, normal.
Many people think the oil price has crashed, but it has just gone back to its long-term historical trend, according to Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. That makes a barrel of oil at around $50 just about right based on a 100-year inflation-adjusted average, said Sharma, who manages $25 billion as head of emerging markets.