Catalan Support for Independence From Spain Drops to 2012 Level

Catalan support for independence from Spain fell to the lowest level since June 2012, as the region’s president, Artur Mas, tries to pull together a broad pro-secession alliance to run in an early regional election.

A survey released today by the Catalan executive’s pollster Centre d’Estudis d’Opinio showed 36 percent of voters want to see Catalonia become an independent state compared with 45 percent in October. Support for independence had been above 44 percent since October 2012.

The Catalan president is considering calling early elections to serve as a de facto referendum on independence after Spain’s Constitutional Court blocked his plans for a vote in November.

The CEO survey interviewed 1,100 people between Dec. 9 and Dec. 13 and margin of error was 2.95 percent.

Catalonia’s 2018 bonds jumped as much as 16 basis points to 107.86 percent of their face value after the poll was released. The securities traded at 107.8 percent as of 12:45 p.m. in Madrid, up from yesterday’s closing price of 107.71 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Mas’s CiU party would get 22 percent of the votes compared with 21 percent for his separatist rival Oriol Junquera’s Esquerra Republicana, the survey showed. CiU would get as many as 36 out of 135 seats in the regional parliament and Esquerra would get as many as 35.

Ciutadans, an unionist party, would get 11 percent of the vote, which would translate to about 16 seats. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party would get about 12 seats.

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