Fed, Housing Data, BOE Tests, Japan Vote: Week Ahead Dec. 13-20

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide U.S. interest-rate policy, and will give new forecasts for the economy and inflation as growth picks up.

U.S. housing starts and industrial production probably climbed last month, separate reports may show.

The Bank of England publishes the results of its stress tests on U.K. banks.

Japan holds a general election and its central bank will announce monetary policy.

European Union leaders meet for a two-day summit in Brussels to discuss the region’s economy and policy toward Russia and Ukraine.

Oracle Corp., FedEx Corp. and General Mills Inc. will report quarterly results.

The Heisman Trophy for the year’s best player in U.S. college football will be awarded in New York.


-A Washington civil rights protest called the Justice for All March takes place after the killings of black men by police in Ferguson, Missouri, and New York City. The noon event is being organized by the Rev. Al Sharpton.

-Chinese state and party leaders will attend the country’s first designated memorial service to mark the Nanjing Massacre during World War II. State television and radio will broadcast the event live. Time to be confirmed.

-The Heisman Trophy for the year’s best player in college football will be awarded. The finalists are University of Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, University of Alabama receiver Amari Cooper and University of Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon. 20:00 EST in New York.

-College Football. The Army will seek to end a 12-game losing streak against Navy in the 115th playing of the Army-Navy game. 15:00 EST in Baltimore.


-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry departs for a meeting in Rome with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Kerry has said he still hopes to revive talks seeking a two-state solution even as Palestinians press for the United Nations to impose a deadline for Israel to leave occupied territories. Time to be determined.

-NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) play the Dallas Cowboys (9-4). 20:30 EST. Click here for full NFL game schedule.

-Japan holds a general election, with projections showing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party may get a two-thirds majority even without its coalition partner in what would be the biggest postwar margin of victory. With the opposition in disarray, turnout is also expected to be the lowest since the war, perhaps falling under 50 percent for the first time. Voting ends at 20:00 (06:00 EST), at which point state broadcaster NHK will call the result based on exit polls.

-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang begins a week-long trip that takes in Kazakhstan, Serbia and Thailand. In Kazakhstan, Li will meet with counterpart Karim Massimov and attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Astana. In Serbia, he’ll join a Sino-Central and Eastern European governmental meeting, and in Thailand he’ll participate in a Greater Mekong Area economic cooperation conference.

-ECONOMY: China foreign direct investment (Nov.) may come any time from Dec. 14-18.


-U.S. industrial production probably climbed in November after an unexpected decline a month earlier as factories picked up and colder weather spurred utility output, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve releases the data at 09:15 in Washington.

-Obamacare deadline. Many people enrolled in plans under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will have them automatically renewed if they don’t shop for new coverage before today’s deadline, possibly boosting their out-of-pocket health costs. Premiums may increase or subsidies may fall as insurers compete with each other on price. Only about 400,000 people have manually renewed their plans using the federal system covering 37 states.

-Japan reports fourth-quarter Tankan business confidence. The result for large manufacturers is estimated to be similar to the last quarter. 08:50 in Tokyo (12/14 18:50 EST).

-European Union foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss Syria, Iraq and Libya. 09:30 CET (03:30 EST).

-EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini meets Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to discuss European assistance for Ukraine. Meeting starts at 18:00 CET (12:00 EST) in Brussels, with a press conference at 19:30 CET.

-U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne gives a lunchtime speech at the Economic Club of New York. Time to be determined.

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks in Vienna after the publication of the Austrian Financial Stability Report. 10:00 CET (04:00 EST).

-The International Energy Agency publishes its medium-term report on the status and outlook for the coal market with projections for supply and demand worldwide. 15:00 CET in Paris (09:00 EST).

-Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., speaks at the two-day Cross-Strait Entrepreneurs Summit on cooperation between enterprises in Taiwan and China. 11:00 in Taipei (12/14 22:00 EST).

-Deadline for China to respond to arbitration filed by the Philippines over territorial disputes. China, in a position paper released through the state-run Xinhua news agency on Dec. 7, said it rejected the arbitration, while Philippine foreign affairs department spokesman Charles Jose said Dec. 8 that the process will proceed with or without China.

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. Supreme Court. Click here for schedule.

-ECONOMY: Empire manufacturing (Dec.), U.S. capital flows (Oct.), U.K. Rightmove house prices (Dec.), Israel CPI (Nov.), Turkey unemployment (Sept.), Bulgaria CPI (Nov.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Portugal report on banking system.


-U.S. housing starts probably increased in November after falling the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey, indicating job growth and lower borrowing costs are helping to revive residential real estate. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Bank of England stress tests. The BOE publishes the results of stress tests of U.K. banks alongside its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report. From 07:00 in London (02:00 EST). BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at 09:00.

-U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron is questioned by the House of Commons Liaison Committee about the government’s policies toward climate change, fracking and Islamic radicalization. Ninety-minute session starts at 16:00 in London (11:00 EST).

-Former Grupo Espirito Santo executives Manuel Fernando Espirito Santo and Jose Manuel Espirito Santo speak at Portuguese parliamentary hearings about the management of rescued lender Banco Espirito Santo and holding company Grupo Espirito Santo. From 09:00 (04:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. building permits (Nov.), Australia central bank minutes (Dec.), HSBC China manufacturing PMI (Dec.), U.K. inflation (Nov.), German ZEW index (Dec.), Nigeria CPI (Nov.), Czech PPI (Nov.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Sweden rate decision, Morocco rate decision, Hungary rate decision.



-Fed policy announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide whether to keep its pledge to hold interest rates low for a “considerable time.” While Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer earlier this month said the central bank is nearer to dropping that vow, other policy makers have indicated they’re in no hurry. After data showed U.S. hiring surged in November, policy makers must decide how much longer to leave the language in place. The Fed’s decision will be announced at 14:00, along with new forecasts for the economy, inflation and interest rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press conference at 14:30.

-U.S. consumer prices probably declined in November as the cost of gasoline fell while inflation held below the Federal Reserve’s goal, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Labor Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Bank of England minutes. The BOE publishes minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee’s December meeting, when the benchmark interest rate was held at a record-low 0.5 percent. The report will show how the nine members voted as well as the arguments for and against maintaining the current policy stance. 09:30 in London (04:30 EST).

-Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras puts forward his candidate for the Greek presidency, Stavros Dimas, in the first of three possible votes in parliament. He needs a supermajority of 200 lawmakers in the 300-seat assembly to win. If Dimas isn’t elected, the vote goes to a second round on Dec. 23, then a third on Dec. 29. Failure to secure his nomination as head of state in the third attempt would lead to the government’s collapse and early elections. Voting starts at about 19:00 in Athens (12:00 EST).

-German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech on Europe’s debt crisis, a day before EU leaders meet for a summit in Brussels. 18:30 CET (12:30 EST).

-Iraq report. A report will be published after an inquiry led by a former U.K. judge into allegations Iraqi nationals were unlawfully killed by British troops in 2004. In London, time to be determined.

-The European Parliament holds a non-binding vote on a resolution to recognize Palestine as a state. The vote is at 12:30 CET (06:30 EST) in Strasbourg, France.

-Batista trial in Brazil. The trial resumes against former billionaire Eike Batista, once Brazil’s richest man, for alleged insider trading and market manipulation. Batista could face a prison sentence if he’s found guilty. 14:00, Third Federal Criminal Tribunal, Rio de Janeiro (11:00 EST). A verdict is expected by the beginning of 2015.

-The Mercosur trade bloc meets in Parana, Argentina, for a summit. Leaders from nations including Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela may discuss issues including the impact of falling commodity prices and Argentina’s conflict with holdout creditors that prompted the government to default on its debt in July. Starts at 10:00 (08:00 EST).

-North Korean leader Kim Jong Un marks three years in power after taking over from his father, who died of a heart attack on this day. On the first and second anniversaries, he visited a mausoleum where the bodies of his father and grandfather lie.

-ECONOMY: South Korea producer prices (Nov.), Japan trade data (Nov.), U.K. unemployment (Aug.-Oct.), Slovakia CPI (Nov.), Poland industrial output (Nov.), Poland PPI (Nov.), Russia retail sales (Nov.), unemployment (Nov.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Thailand rate decision, Czech rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Oracle Corp., FedEx Corp., General Mills Inc.


-EU leaders start a two-day summit in Brussels. Issues to be discussed include support for Ukraine, policy toward Russia, the EU economy and budgets, and a proposed investment program. Starts at 16:00 CET (10:00 EST). Through 12/19.

-MetLife and Fed oversight. The Financial Stability Oversight Council plans to meet today to vote on whether to designate MetLife Inc. as systemically important and subject the insurer to Federal Reserve oversight, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The council first proposed the designation in September, followed by MetLife’s challenge to the decision at a November hearing before the panel. If MetLife is designated, it can appeal in U.S. District Court within 30 days. Time to be determined.

-The Bank of Japan releases its Flow of Funds report on financial holdings in various sectors of the economy. The report last quarter showed household assets rose to a record. 08:50 in Tokyo (12/17 18:50 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. leading indicators (Nov.), Philadelphia Fed survey (Dec.), Mexico retail sales (Oct.), New Zealand GDP (3Q), China property prices (Nov.), Hong Kong unemployment (Nov.), Portugal PPI (Nov.), U.K. retail sales (Nov.), German Ifo business confidence (Dec.), Ukraine industrial production (Nov.).

-EARNINGS: Nike Inc., Accenture Plc.


-The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy at the end of a two-day meeting in Tokyo. The bank kept its policy unchanged in November after increasing monetary easing on Oct. 31. The meeting usually ends about midday and is followed by a press conference with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at 15:30 in Tokyo (01:30 EST).

-Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari speaks at the Bloomberg office in Tokyo on the future of Abenomics. 18:40 in Tokyo (04:40 EST).

-ECONOMY: Brazil IPCA-15 inflation (Dec.), Brazil unemployment (Nov.), Colombia GDP (third quarter), U.K. budget data (Nov.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Colombia rate decision, Mexico meeting minutes.

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Bahrain (Fitch), Bulgaria (Fitch), EFSF (Fitch), Egypt (Fitch), Kuwait (Fitch), Namibia (S&P), Senegal (S&P), Slovenia (S&P), Sweden (Fitch), Ukraine (S&P).


No scheduled events.

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at +44-20-3216-4206 or jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at +1-212-617-5877 or gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Keat Kian Koh in Singapore at +65-6212-1580 or kkoh@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at +1-212-617-8977 or adavidson@bloomberg.net Nancy Moran, Tal Barak Harif

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