DoubleLine’s Gundlach Sees Bonds Starting Strongly in ‘15

Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of $60 billion investment firm DoubleLine Capital, sees deflationary forces and muted wage growth constraining the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates, making 2015 potentially another good year for bonds.

“I don’t share your concern” about an increase in interest rates on longer-dated government debt, Gundlach said on a webcast with analysts and investors today. As the Fed wants to “get off of zero” for flexibility, indicators are piling up to paint an economic backdrop that isn’t a “great” argument for a rate increase, he said. Even if the Fed were to increase rates, he said, the market may defy expectations with longer-dated bonds rallying.

“Next year is going to start out strong for bonds,” Gundlach said.

The 10-year U.S. government bond yield fell to a record low of about 1.39 percent in July 2012, and reached 2.21 percent today, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. Gundlach said he is “less convinced” that will remain the lowest than he was earlier. It may be a “mistake” for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy now, he said.

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