Ruble Gains With Oil as Tax Deadline Looms: Russia Reality Check

Markets are reacting in real time to tension in Ukraine following Russia’s March incursion into Crimea and subsequent unrest in the country’s east, where pro-Russian separatists seek autonomy from Kiev.

The ruble gained 0.8 percent to 46.7145 per dollar by 1.21 p.m. in Moscow, paring its decline since Feb. 28, the day before President Vladimir Putin’s incursion, to 23 percent. The yield on local-currency bonds due February 2027 fell seven basis points to 10.18 percent, giving an increase in the period of 182 basis points. The Micex Index rose 0.7 percent to 1,517.24, stretching its increase since Feb. 28 to 5 percent.

The chart shows the performance of stocks, bonds and the ruble, along with indicators of Russian investment risk. The top panel displays the value of the Micex Index of 50 stocks, government debt in the Bloomberg Russia Local Sovereign Bond Index, and the ruble relative to the dollar.

Credit-default swap rates on Russian bonds due in five years appear in the bottom panel. The yield gap between the nation’s debt and U.S. Treasuries and the one-month implied volatility of the ruble are also tracked.

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