BOJ Won’t Ease Again Until at Least Aug. 2015: Survey

After the Bank of Japan expanded monetary stimulus last month, 21 of 30 economists see the central bank holding steady at least through July, with 8 of those forecasting no additional boost in the future. Following are the results of the most recent survey conducted by Bloomberg News on Nov 6-11.

1) When do you next expect the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus? 
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Response Count:                                     30 100.0%
---------------------------------------------------------------
A. Nov. 2014                                         0      -
B. Dec. 2014                                         1   3.3%
C. Jan. 2015                                         0      -
D. Feb. 2015                                         0      -
E. Mar. 2015                                         0      -
F. April 8, 2015                                     0      -
G. April 30, 2015                                    6  20.0%
H. May 2015                                          0      -
I. June 2015                                         1   3.3%
J. July 2015                                         1   3.3%
K. August 2015 or later                             13  43.3%
L. Don’t expect                                      8  26.7%

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2) How would the BOJ ease more next time? =============================================================== A. Increase pace of monetary base expansion 16 B. Increase pace of JGB accumulation 14 C. Increase pace of ETF accumulation 13 D. Increase pace of J-REIT accumulation 10 E. Cut excess reserve rate 4 F. Others 5 =============================================================== 3) When will the BOJ start tapering? =============================================================== Response Count: 30 --------------------------------------------------------------- A. 1H 2015 0 0.0% B. 2H 2015 1 3.3% C. 1H 2016 1 3.3% D. 2H 2016 2 6.7% E. 1H 2017 3 10.0% F. 2H 2017 6 20.0% G. 2018 or later 0 0.0% h. Unforeseeable 17 56.7%

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4) The Bank of Japan has said that Core CPI (inflation excluding fresh food, and also excluding the effects of the sales tax rises) is likely to reach around 2% y/y -- the price stability target -- around the middle of the projection period through fiscal 2016. Do you think this forecast is achievable? =============================================================== Yes No -------------------------------------------------------------- Reach target 3 27 =============================================================== 5) Do you think the BOJ will revise aim to achieve the 2% price stability target with a time horizon of about 2 years? Yes No --------------------------------------------------------------- 18 12

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Individual responses for Q.1 - the timing of more easing. --------------------------------------------------------------- Barclays Capital: K. Morita Don’t expect BNP Paribas: R. Kono Don’t expect Capital Economics: M. Thieliant April 30, 2015 Credit Agricole: K. Ogata August 2015 or later Credit Suisse: H. Shirakawa April 30, 2015 Dai-ichi Life: H. Kumano August 2015 or later Daiwa Research: M. Kumagai August 2015 or later Daiwa Securities: M. Noguchi Don’t expect HSBC Holdings: I. Devalier June 2015 Japan Macro Adv: T. Okubo Don’t expect Japan Research: H. Yamada August 2015 or later JPMorgan Chase: M. Kanno July 2015 Meiji Yasuda: Y. Kodama August 2015 or later Mitsubishi UFJ Sec: N. Muguruma August 2015 or later Mitsubishi BCR: Y. Shimanaka Don’t expect MURC: S. Kobayashi April 30, 2015 Mizuho Research: H. Takata Dec. 2014 Mizuho Securities: Y. Ueno August 2015 or later NLI Research: Y. Yajima August 2015 or later Norinchukin Res: T. Minami August 2015 or later Okasan Securities: M. Suzuki April 30, 2015 RBS Securities: J. Nishioka Don’t expect Shinshu Univ: A. Makabe April 30, 2015 SMBC Friend: M. Iwashita Don’t expect SMBC Nikko: C. Morita August 2015 or later Societe Generale: T. Aida August 2015 or later Sumitomo Mitsui: H. Muto April 30, 2015 Tokai Tokyo Sec: K. Sano Don’t expect Totan Research: I. Kato August 2015 or later UBS Securities: D. Aoki August 2015 or later ================================================================
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