World Corn Forecasts Raised by IGC for Sixth Time on U.S. Yields

Global corn production will be higher than predicted a month ago on bigger crops in the U.S. and Europe, the International Grains Council said, lifting its outlook for a sixth time in as many months.

World corn output will be 979.7 million metric tons, higher than last month’s forecast of 974.2 million tons, the London-based IGC wrote in a report today. The outlook for wheat production was also raised.

Corn futures have tumbled 13 percent in Chicago in the past 12 months on an outlook for a record crop in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter. Bigger crops are helping to keep a lid on global food inflation, with the United Nations reporting a sixth straight drop for costs in September, the longest slide since 2009.

“Expectations for U.S. yields continued to improve” for corn corps, the IGC wrote. “Global supplies appear comfortable, particularly in the key exporters, with ending stocks forecast at their highest since 1987-88.”

Wheat output worldwide will rise to a record 717.6 million tons, up from 712.5 million tons in 2013-14 and more than the 716.6 million tons forecast last month, the IGC said. The outlook for wheat was raised for a fifth month in a row.

The outlook for soybean production worldwide was cut to 307 million tons from last month’s forecast of 310 million tons. The crop will rise from 284 million tons a year earlier.

The outlook for U.S. corn production was raised by 5 million tons to 365 million tons, compared with last year’s harvest of 353.7 million tons, the IGC data showed. Farmers in Europe will gather 80.9 million tons, 2.1 million tons more than predicted last month, according to the council.

Corn Producers

Brazil’s crop is seen at 75 million tons from 79.9 million tons in 2014-15.

Global corn production is still expected to fall 0.4 percent from last year’s record of 983.3 million tons on declines expected in China and South America. In Argentina, output will drop to 23 million tons from 24 million a year earlier, while Chinese corn production is expected to fall to 213.8 million tons from 218.5 million tons.

Corn carryover stocks are seen climbing to 194 million tons from 176 million, with the outlook raised by 3 million tons from last month, the report showed. Stocks held by the main exporters are forecast to climb to 72 million tons from 52 million tons last season.

For wheat, Australia’s harvest outlook was cut to 24 million tons from 25 million tons. Production estimates were raised for growers including Poland and Ukraine.

Ending stocks of wheat are predicted to climb to 193 million tons from 185 million tons, according to the IGC, which lowered the outlook for inventories by 2 million tons.

While global rice production is expected to be stable at 476 million tons, world trade may climb to a record 41 million tons from 40 million, with China the main importer, according to the IGC.

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