U.S. Midterm Elections, Jobs, ECB, BOE, AIG: Week Ahead Nov. 1-8

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. midterm elections are held, with Republicans expected to increase their majority in the House while needing six seats to win a majority in the Senate.

Payrolls data will probably show that U.S. employers added jobs in October while the unemployment rate held at a six-year low of 5.9 percent.

Indexes measuring U.S. service industry and manufacturing growth will also be released.

Senator Barbara Mikulski, chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, leads a hearing on the U.S. response to Ebola.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England make interest-rate decisions.

Companies releasing earnings include Allianz SE, American International Group Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Tesla Motors Inc., News Corp., Time Warner Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp.

The 44th New York City Marathon takes place.


-ECONOMY: China manufacturing PMI (Oct.).

-College Football. Top-ranked Mississippi State University plays the University of Arkansas (19:15 EDT). Click here for other game schedules.

-Horse Racing’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic. Shared Belief, a favorite to win, will race against horses including Belmont Stakes champion Tonalist and California Chrome, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Santa Anita Park racetrack in Arcadia, California. Post time 20:35 EDT.


-U.S. and Canadian Standard Time. Clocks in most of the U.S. and Canada are set back one hour at 02:00 local time as Daylight Saving Time ends.

-Romanian presidential election. Prime Minister Victor Ponta is ahead with 43 percent support, according to the latest opinion poll, followed by Liberal leader Klaus Johannis, who has 30 percent. Exit poll results from various broadcasters come out at 21:00 local time (14:00 EST).

-Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks at the Association for Financial Professionals conference. 16:30 in Washington.

-French President Francois Hollande starts a three-day state visit to Canada that will include talks with Prime Minister Stephen Harper and an address to Parliament in Ottawa. Timing to be determined.

-New York City Marathon. The 44th running will produce the one millionth finisher from the 50,000 people who are expected to complete the 26.2 mile (42.2 kilometer) course that traverses all five boroughs before ending in Central Park. Professional women start at 09:10, followed by professional men at 09:40.

-NFL. The Denver Broncos (6-1) visit the New England Patriots (6-2). 16:25 EST. Click here for all NFL game schedules.


-The pace of U.S. manufacturing growth was little changed in October, according to a Bloomberg survey, as factories continued to expand production and bolster the economy. The Institute for Supply Management releases its index at 10:00 in Washington.

-CCPPP National Conference on Public-Private Partnerships. Speakers include Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and Canadian Finance Minister Joe Oliver. 08:00 EST in Toronto. Through Nov. 4.

-Mercedes-Benz opens its first research and development center in China. The Daimler AG luxury car brand holds a roundtable to mark the center’s opening, led by Hubertus Troska, Daimler’s head of China, Gordon Wagener, the company’s global design chief, and Thomas Weber, a board member for research and development. 13:30 in Beijing (00:30 EST).

-Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s appeals hearing on a sodomy conviction resumes. A decision upholding the conviction would return Anwar to jail for five years, probably ending his political career. Time to be decided.

-ECB Supervisory Board Chair Daniele Nouy speaks at a European Parliament hearing. 15:00 CET in Brussels (09:00 EST).

-U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for schedule.

-U.S. Supreme Court. Click here for schedule.

-ECONOMY: China non-manufacturing PMI (Oct), HSBC China manufacturing PMI (Oct.), Hong Kong retail sales (Sept.), Turkey manufacturing PMI (Oct.), Turkey CPI (Oct.), euro-area manufacturing PMI (Oct.), U.K. manufacturing PMI (Oct.), Romania retail sales (Sept.), Hungary manufacturing PMI (Oct.), Czech HSBC manufacturing PMI (Oct.), Kazakh CPI (Oct.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Ghana rate decision.

-EARNINGS: American International Group Inc., Tenet Healthcare Corp., Holcim Ltd., HSBC Holdings Plc, Ryanair Holdings Plc.


-U.S. midterm elections: House, Senate races. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 36 of 100 U.S. Senate seats are on the ballot. Republicans are expected to increase their majority in the House and need a six seats to win a majority in the Senate. It may take days or weeks to decide the outcome of the Senate elections, as some close races may require runoff elections. Alaska’s mainland polls are among the last to close at 20:00 (midnight EST).

-U.S. governor races. Thirty-six U.S. states from Alaska to Florida vote for chief executives, with 22 of those seats now held by Republicans, according to the National Governors Association. Polls show close races in states including Wisconsin, where Republican Governor Scott Walker faces Democrat Mary Burke; and Florida, where Republican Governor Rick Scott is being challenged by former Governor Charlie Crist. Alaska’s mainland polls are among the last to close at 20:00 (midnight EST).

-Macau’s government is expected to report casino revenue fell for a fifth straight month in October as Chinese President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on corruption damps spending by high-stakes gamblers in the city. 12:00 in Macau (11/03 23:00 EST).

-United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon holds a press conference at 09:45 CET in Vienna (03:45 EST), where he’s attending an industrial development conference.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks at a Christian Democratic Union party event in Berlin at 19:10 CET (13:10 EST).

-The European Central Bank’s Single Supervisory Mechanism starts to operate as the banking supervisor for the euro area.

-The European Commission publishes its economic forecasts. 11:00 CET in Brussels (05:00 EST).

-Google Inc. Chairman Eric Schmidt holds a panel discussion on the future of the Internet. 17:00 in Tokyo (03:00 EST).

-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party, which has a two-thirds majority in parliament, meets to discuss the conversion of $14.3 billion of foreign-currency mortgages to forint and new regulations for the banking industry. Time to be determined.

-Russian nationalists stage their annual march in Moscow. Time to be determined.

-ECONOMY: U.S. factory orders (Sept.), U.S. trade balance (Sept.), Brazil industrial production (Sept.), South Korea Consumer Prices (Oct.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Australia rate decision, Kenya rate decision, Russian central bank monetary policy report, Romania rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Priceline Group Inc., Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., SoftBank Corp., Nissan Motor Co., Fresenius Medical Care AG, Continental AG, Gas Natural SDG SA, Banco Santander SA, Natixis SA, Associated British Foods Plc, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Imperial Tobacco Group Plc.


-U.S. service industries growth was little changed in October, according to a Bloomberg survey, after the strongest quarter since early 2004. The Institute for Supply Management releases its latest index at 10:00 in Washington.

-German Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a speech on Germany’s digital future and takes part in a panel discussion at her CDU party’s headquarters at 16:30 CET in Berlin (10:30 EST).

-Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte visits Malaysia and holds talks with Prime Minister Najib Razak about the investigation into the shooting down earlier this year of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine. Timings to be determined.

-Transfield Services Ltd., the target of an A$1 billion ($883 million) takeover attempt by Ferrovial SA, holds its annual general meeting. 13:30 in Sydney (11/04 21:30 EST).

-U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Timothy Massad speaks at the Futures Industry Association’s Futures and Options Expo. 09:00 in Chicago (10:00 EST).

-Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda gives a speech. 11:30 in Tokyo (11/04 21:30 EST).

-Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks at a Charles Schwab Corp. IMPACT 2014 conference. 16:45 in Denver (18:45 EST).

-The EMART Energy 2014 conference takes place in Amsterdam, focusing on trends in trading markets with speakers from E.ON SE, Electricite de France SA and Vattenfall AB. 09:00 CET in Amsterdam (03:00 EST). Through 11/06.

-South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene will address a fiscal policy workshop hosted by the National Treasury and World Bank. 08:30 in Pretoria (01:30 EST).

-International Monetary Fund and Kenyan officials hold a press conference on a possible new financing program. 16:00 in Nairobi (08:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: U.S. ADP Employment (Oct.), Japan wage data (Sept.), HSBC China services PMI (Oct.), HSBC China composite PMI (Oct.), Taiwan Inflation (Oct.), Indonesia GDP (third quarter), Portugal unemployment (third quarter), South Africa business confidence index (Oct.), euro-area services PMI (Oct.), U.K. services PMI (Oct.), Czech retail sales (Sept.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Japan monetary base (Oct.), Thailand rate decision, Iceland rate decision, Polish rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Tesla Motors Inc., News Corp., Qualcomm Inc., Time Warner Inc., Whole Foods Market Inc., Prudential Financial Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corp., Gerdau SA, Toyota Motor Corp., Lafarge SA, ING Groep NV.


-European Central Bank rate decision. ECB policy makers have signaled they’ll take time to assess the impact of stimulus measures announced in recent months, even as speculation mounts that further measures are in the pipeline to rekindle growth and inflation. Interest-rate decision at 13:45 CET in Frankfurt (07:45 EST), followed by a press conference at 14:30.

-Bank of England rate decision. The BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee will probably leave the benchmark rate at a record-low 0.5 percent, where it’s been since March 2009. 12:00 in London (07:00 EST).

-Senate hearing on Ebola. Senator Barbara Mikulski, chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, leads the questioning on the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. 14:00 in Washington.

-The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Bank of England host the Seventeenth Annual International Banking Conference. Keynote speakers include U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome H. Powell; Stefan Ingves, governor of Sweden’s central bank; and former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder. Starts 09:00 in Chicago (10:00 EST). Click here for full agenda. Through Oct. 7.

-Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg speaks at 09:30, followed by Richard Cordray, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, at 13:00, at the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund’s Bank On 2.0 Conference. In Washington.

-Invest For Kids conference. Speakers include Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management LP; Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments; and Larry Robbins, founder of Glenview Capital Management LLC. Conference proceeds will support child education, health-care and afterschool programs in the Chicago area. Starts 13:30 in Chicago (14:30 EST). Click here for full list of speakers.

-The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization publishes its food price index and cereal supply and demand data. 10:00 CET in Rome (04:00 EST).

-ECB Supervisory Board Chair Daniele Nouy speaks at a European Parliament hearing. 09:30 CET in Brussels (03:30 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), U.S. Challenger Job Cuts (Oct.), Australia jobless rate (Oct.), Israel foreign-exchange reserves (Oct.), Egypt foreign reserves (Oct.), German factory orders (Sept.), U.K. industrial production (Sept.), Russia HSBC composite PMI (Oct.), Hungary industrial production (Sept.), Czech industrial output (Sept.), Ukraine CPI (Oct.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Brazil meeting minutes, Japan policy meeting minutes, Malaysia rate decision, Czech rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Walt Disney Co., Embraer SA, Lenovo Group Ltd., Suzuki Motor Corp., Takata Corp., Nikon Corp., Singapore Airlines Ltd., Siemens AG, Deutsche Telekom AG, Assicurazioni Generali SpA, Munich Re, Sampo Oyj, AstraZeneca Plc, Repsol SA, Societe Generale SA, Commerzbank AG, Telecom Italia SpA, Swisscom AG, Zurich Insurance Group AG, Credit Agricole SA.


-U.S. jobs report. Employers probably added about 225,000 jobs in October, according to a Bloomberg survey as of Oct. 30, in line with the year’s average and showing steady progress in the labor market. Click here for latest estimates. The jobless rate is forecast to hold at a six-year low of 5.9 percent. The Labor Department releases data at 08:30 in Washington.

-Bank of France conference. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure are among central bankers speaking at the event. Starts at 09:00 CET in Paris (03:00 EST).

-Trade and foreign-affairs ministers from 21 members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum gather in Beijing to discuss economic growth ahead of the annual meeting of APEC heads of state Nov. 10-11. Time to be determined, in Beijing.

-The Northern Future Forum in Helsinki hosts prime ministers from the U.K., the Nordic and Baltic countries. Closing press conference scheduled for 12:45 local time (05:45 EST).

-ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks at the Seventeenth Annual International Banking Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 16:00 in Chicago (17:00 EST).

-Detroit bankruptcy. Judge Steven Rhodes will decide whether the city can proceed with its $7 billion debt-reduction plan, which includes cuts in public-worker pensions. 14:00 in Detroit.

-ECONOMY: U.S. consumer credit (Sept.), Brazil IPCA inflation index (Oct.), Mexico inflation (Oct.), Hong Kong foreign exchange reserves (Oct.), Taiwan trade data (Oct.), South Africa gross and net reserves (Oct.), German industrial production (Sept.), French business confidence (Oct.), French industrial production (Sept.), U.K. trade balance (Sept.), Switzerland foreign currency reserves (Oct.), Estonia CPI (Oct.), Bulgaria industrial production (Sept.).

-CENTRAL BANKS: Zambia rate decision.

-EARNINGS: Allianz SE, ArcelorMittal, Fresenius SE & Co KGaA, National Grid Plc, Swiss Re AG.

-SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES: Belgium (Moody’s), Botswana (S&P), Ethiopia (Fitch), European Union (Moody’s), Finland (DBRS), France (DBRS), Hungary (Moody’s), Kazakhstan (Fitch), Kenya (S&P), Mozambique (Fitch), Portugal (S&P), Senegal (Moody’s), Switzerland (Fitch & Moody’s).


-ECONOMY: China trade data (Oct.).

To contact the reporters on this story: James Amott in London at +44-20-3216-4206 or jamott@bloomberg.net; Greg Miles in New York at +1-212-617-5877 or gmiles1@bloomberg.net; Jim McDonald in Tokyo at +81-3-3201-3190 or jmcdonald8@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andy Davidson at +1-212-617-8977 or adavidson@bloomberg.net Nancy Moran, Tal Barak Harif

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