Scots Poll Suggests SNP May Be Kingmaker After U.K. Vote

The Scottish National Party might win almost all House of Commons seats in Scotland next year, a poll suggested, gaining dozens of districts from Ed Miliband’s Labour Party and hitting his chances of gaining power.

The SNP, which runs the semi-autonomous government in Edinburgh, had the support of 52 percent of respondents in a Scotland-wide poll by Ipsos Mori for STV, compared with 20 percent in the 2010 general election. The nationalists might gain 54 of the 59 Scottish seats in the Commons in May, up from six now, STV said on its website.

Labour, whose Scottish leader, Johann Lamont, quit last week, has fallen to 23 percent from 42 percent in 2010, the poll shows. That suggests Labour might win only four seats in Scotland, down from 41 in 2010, in a part of the U.K. that’s been one of its traditional heartlands.

Support for the SNP has surged since September’s independence referendum in Scotland, which saw nearly 45 percent of the electorate backing the party’s call to quit the U.K. A near clean-sweep of Scottish seats would be likely to make the party the third largest in the U.K. Parliament. That would make it the possible kingmaker in deciding whether Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives or Labour should take power after what looks set to be another inconclusive election.

Ipsos Mori questioned 1,026 respondents from Oct. 22 to Oct. 29. No margin of error was specified.

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