Ruble Resumes Slide as Micex Index Gains: Russia Reality Check

Markets are reacting in real time to tension in Ukraine following Russia’s March incursion into Crimea and subsequent annexation of the Black Sea peninsula.

The Micex Index rose 1 percent to 1,390.34 at 12:39 p.m. in Moscow, paring its decline since Feb. 28, the day before President Vladimir Putin’s incursion, to 3.8 percent. The ruble weakened 1 percent to 40.86 per dollar, extending to 12 percent its loss in the period. The yield on local-currency bonds due February 2027 fell three basis points to 9.84 percent, giving an increase since Feb. 28 of 148 basis points.

The chart shows the performance of stocks, bonds and the ruble, along with indicators of Russian investment risk. The top panel displays the value of the Micex Index of 50 stocks, government debt in the Bloomberg Russia Local Sovereign Bond Index, and the ruble relative to the dollar.

Credit-default swap rates on Russian bonds due in five years appear in the bottom panel. The yield gap between Russian debt and U.S. Treasuries and the one-month implied volatility of the ruble are also tracked.

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