Independent Scotland Home Values May Fall 17.5%, Zoopla Says

Home prices in Scotland may fall by about 17.5 percent, the same amount as during the financial crisis, if the country leaves the U.K., Zoopla Property Group Plc said in a report today.

Demand for homes may drop if a “yes” vote in the Sept. 18 referendum on Scottish independence prompts businesses to move south of the border, the property website said. The average Scottish home is valued at 177,599 pounds ($289,000), 2.2 percent below the August 2008 peak, after rallying for the last two years, Zoopla said.

Polls show the vote is too close to call, raising the possibility that the U.K. may break up after three centuries. Mortgages could become harder to obtain and interest rates may rise if voters approve independence, according to Zoopla.

“A ‘yes’ vote would almost certainly have a detrimental effect on Scottish house prices in the short to medium term,” Zoopla spokesman Lawrence Hall said in the report. “The uncertainties on employment, tax, currency, European Union membership and interest rates will all play their part.”

London’s property market could benefit if Scotland chooses independence and the decision prompts some financial institutions to relocate to England, Rightmove Plc said today in its monthly house-price survey.

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