Dollar Rises to 11-Month High as Fed Consider Exit PaceAndrea Wong
The dollar strengthened to an 11-month high versus the euro after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed policy makers raised the possibility that the central bank may increase interest rates sooner than anticipated.
A gauge of the U.S. currency reached a six-month high while emerging-market currencies slumped as the Fed came closer to agreement on an exit strategy from aggressive monetary stimulus. New Zealand’s dollar declined to a five-month low on speculation economic growth is waning. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index rose to 6.16 percent, up from an all-time low on a closing basis of 5.29 percent on July 3.
“These minutes are really a turning point, the Fed has moved from a dovish bias to a more-hawkish bias,” Douglas Borthwick, the head of foreign exchange at New York brokerage Chapdelaine & Co., said by phone. “What’s really important about the statement is it’s now a two-way bet. Now knowing the Fed can be dovish or hawkish, that’ll lead to more volatility.”
The U.S. currency gained 0.5 percent to $1.3259 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York, after appreciating to $1.3256, the strongest level since Sept. 13. The greenback climbed 0.8 percent to 103.76 yen after reaching 103.85, the most since April 4. The euro rose 0.4 percent to 137.58 yen.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, advanced 0.5 percent to 1,028.25, reaching the highest level since Feb. 5.
The kiwi dropped for a fourth day against the dollar and declined below 84 U.S. cents for the first time since March.
“The New Zealand economy has stopped providing upside pushes to the New Zealand dollar, while better U.S. data has provided a dollar bid,” said Sam Tuck, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. in Auckland. “A support level for kiwi has been taken out at 84 U.S. cents,” triggering stop-loss orders, he said. Support refers to an area on a chart where analysts anticipate orders to buy are clustered.
New Zealand’s currency fell 0.6 percent to 83.74 U.S. cents, reaching the lowest since March 4.
South Korea’s won fell as official data showed the nation’s short-term external debt rose to $131.8 billion by the end of June, the highest since the third quarter of 2012. The won fell 0.4 percent to 1,022.69 per dollar.
Emerging-market assets slumped after the Fed minutes stoked concern investors may shift out of assets in developing nations. A Bloomberg gauge with equal weightings of the dollar’s 20 most-traded developing-market peers fell 0.6 percent to 90.8349.
“Many participants noted that if convergence toward the committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated,” the Fed minutes said.
There was no discussion of the timing of a rate increase in the minutes. Fed officials have forecast that it would occur some time next year. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at almost zero since December 2008.
U.S. reports this month have shown employers added more than 200,000 workers for a sixth month in July, while a gauge of manufacturing increased and housing starts quickened.
“Data has been increasingly positive to the point Fed can no longer ignore,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc. in Washington, said in a phone interview. “We’re seeing a gradual move towards a balanced policy stance between the doves and hawks within the Fed.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak Aug. 22 at a conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The dollar has gained 1.8 percent in the past month, the second-best performer after Norway’s krone of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro has fallen 0.4 percent and the yen has declined 0.7 percent.