Rousseff Lead Thins in Ibope Poll With Brazil Win Intact

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s lead over her competitors narrowed less than three months before elections in an Ibope poll that shows her winning in a possible run-off.

Support for Rousseff among potential candidates for the Oct. 5 election slipped to 38 percent from 39 percent last month, according to the July 18-21 poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. Senator Aecio Neves is running second with 22 percent compared to 21 percent in June.

Brazilians returned to work after the June 12 to July 13 World Cup to a slew of negative economic news such as quickening inflation and reduced growth forecasts. While near-record low unemployment and increased welfare spending have buoyed her support, polls conducted last week by Datafolha and Sensus show Rousseff is increasingly vulnerable to Neves.

Rousseff’s lead over Neves in a possible run-off vote on Oct. 26 narrowed to eight percentage points from 13 percentage points in June, according to the Ibope poll of 2,002 people published in Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper this evening.

The incumbent’s lead over all candidates combined in the first round is one percentage point, which falls within the margin of error. Brazil holds a runoff on Oct. 26 if the lead candidate fails to garner more votes than all others put together.

Datafolha and Sensus polls show Rousseff’s advantage over Neves in the second round falls within the margins of error, making the outcome too close to call.

The government’s approval rating was unchanged at 44 percent while down from a high of 79 percent in March last year, according to Ibope.

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