EU Rapeseed Outlook Raised by Oil World as Yields ClimbWhitney McFerron
Rapeseed production in the European Union, the biggest producing region, may be larger than previously expected as yield outlook improves from Germany to the U.K. to Romania, Oil World said.
Production in the 28 countries of the EU may be a record 22.7 million metric tons, 300,000 tons higher than estimated last month, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report. Output will be 1.5 million tons larger than last year as both planting and yields increased, according to the report.
“Reports about this year’s crop standing in the field are very positive with sizably higher yields expected from most areas,” Oil World said. In Germany, “field reports are still very optimistic and many observers point to the generally favorable weather during the growing period, although some local hail damage was done during the past two weeks.”
Rapeseed futures on Euronext in Paris, the European benchmark, slid to a four-year low at 326.25 euros ($444.45) a ton on July 11. The oilseed has declined in tandem with U.S. prices of corn, soybeans and wheat as crops in the Northern Hemisphere are developing in mostly good condition, signaling global stockpiles will rebound from lows in recent years.
Global production of rapeseed, including the canola variety, may drop 2 percent to 68.3 million tons in 2014-15, mostly because of lower output in Canada, according to Oil World. Total supplies available to crushers, importers and other users will still be larger than the prior year because of higher stockpiles at the start of the season, according to the report.
Germany, the EU’s top grower, may harvest 5.9 million tons of rapeseed, up from 5.78 million tons the prior year, Oil World said. Output in France may jump 19 percent to 5.22 million tons. Supplies from the U.K. may rise 17 percent to 2.5 million tons while Romania’s crop at 1 million tons may be 52 percent higher than the prior year. Rising production means the EU’s rapeseed imports may fall to a four-year low at 2.7 million tons in 2014-15, according to the report.
Ukraine, the biggest supplier of rapeseed to the EU, may harvest 2.3 million tons, down from 2.47 million a year earlier because of reduced crop area, Oil World said. Australia’s crop was pegged at 3.6 million tons, down from 3.9 million tons.
In Canada, the world’s biggest exporter and top producer of canola, recent heavy rainfall and flooding may have damaged 10 percent to 20 percent of the canola and wheat area in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, according to the report. The country may harvest 14.8 million tons of canola in 2014-15, down from 17.96 million a year earlier while still the second-biggest crop on record, Oil World said.