Brazil’s Top Five Economists Pare Forecast for Real’s Decline

The five most-accurate economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank pared their expectation for the real’s decline by year-end even as the median outlook of about 100 analysts was unchanged.

The central bank said in survey published today that the median forecast for the currency at year-end from its top five economists was 2.25 per U.S. dollar, compared with 2.30 a week earlier. The median forecast from about 100 economists surveyed by the central bank stayed at 2.40 percent. The real dropped 0.3 percent at 2.2213 at 2:48 p.m. in Sao Paulo, the biggest decline among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, on concern gross domestic product growth will slow further.

Brazil’s announced June 24 that it was extending until Dec. 31 its daily offer of $200 million of foreign-exchange swaps each business day. The program supporting the currency and limiting import price increases had been scheduled to finish at the end of June.

“The central bank has demonstrated it is interested in having the dollar close to 2.20,” Silvio Campos Neto, an economist at Tendencias Consultoria Integrada in Sao Paulo, said in a telephone interview. “The intervention program keeps the currency at this level.” The firm was one of the five most-accurate in May, according to the central bank.

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