Micex Erases Crimea Drop on Poroshenko Win: Russia Reality Check

As markets react in real time to Russia’s incursion into Crimea and the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula, stocks and bonds climbed as billionaire Petro Poroshenko won Ukraine’s presidential election.

The Micex Index rose 0.7 percent to 1,449.36, erasing its retreat since Putin’s intervention in Ukraine started on March 1. Poroshenko got 54 percent of yesterday’s vote with 72.3 percent of ballots counted, according to the Election Commission in Kiev.

The chart shows the performance of stocks, bonds and the ruble, along with indicators of Russian investment risk. The yield on benchmark local-currency bonds due February 2027 fell four basis points to 8.74 percent, trimming the increase since Feb. 28 to 38 basis points. The ruble was little changed at 34.1820 per dollar, taking its appreciation in the period to 5 percent.

The top panel displays the value of the Micex Index of 50 Russian equities, government debt in the Bloomberg Russia Local Sovereign Bond Index, and the ruble relative to the dollar. Credit default swap rates on Russian bonds due in five years appear in the bottom panel. The yield gap between Russian debt and U.S. Treasuries and the one-month implied volatility of the ruble are also tracked.

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