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Decoding Dollar Turns Into Wall Street’s Parlor Game: Currencies

The only consensus on the dollar is that there’s no consensus.

Strategists have offered explanations for unexpected U.S. currency depreciation ranging from pressure to sell the greenback to buy higher-yielding currencies in carry trades, to flows linked to growth in China’s reserves, to selling by computers using algorithmic-trading systems. What’s certain is the dollar, a top bullish currency bet at the end of 2013, has fallen to its lowest level since September 2012, and large speculators have given up on it, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.