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U.S. Two-Year Note ‘Oversold’ in Response to Yellen Rate Outlook

A surge in Treasury two-year yields this month by the most since 2011 is poised to reverse, based on a technical indicator.

A 13-basis-point increase in March pushed the 14-day relative-strength index up to 71, past the threshold of 70 that signals a yield has risen too far, too fast and is poised to decline. Yields climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested this month the central bank will raise U.S. borrowing costs by the middle of next year.