Amplats Seen at Risk of Losing Gains as Top Platinum StockAndre Janse van Vuuren
A rally that crowned Anglo American Platinum Ltd. the top performing South African platinum stock risks reversing once the cost of an eight-week long strike is tallied, according to Imara SP Reid.
Amplats, as the world’s largest producer of the metal is known, climbed 19 percent this year, the biggest advance in the FTSE/JSE Africa Top40 Index after AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. The gains come as output at the Johannesburg-based company has been halved since a strike over pay began Jan. 23.
“The market is underestimating the costs to the mines of the strike,” Stephen Meintjes, head of research at Imara in Johannesburg, said by phone March 18. “It is going to take a long time to ramp those back up into production.”
The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union is leading a work-stoppage at mines owned by Amplats, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc to support demands that basic pay be more than doubled to 12,500 rand ($1,151). Talks broke down on March 5 as a state mediator said the parties remained far apart. The companies offered to raise wages of 5,000 rand to 6,000 rand by as much as 9 percent.
Amplats is losing about 4,000 platinum ounces of daily production, translating into about 100 million rand of revenue, per day, the company said in an e-mailed statement on March 5. The mines where the AMCU is striking accounted for 46 percent of Amplats’s output in 2013.
The six-member FTSE/JSE Africa Platinum Index declined 2.3 percent since the strike was announced on Jan. 20 with Impala, the second-largest producer, falling 2.7 percent and Lonmin down 13 percent. Amplats rose 15 percent over the period, reaching a 13-month high on March 18.
Amplats may be gaining on expectations that London-based parent Anglo American Plc will reorganize its 80 percent-owned unit, Simon Hudson-Peacock, a money manager at Momentum Asset Management in Johannesburg, said by phone March 17. Anglo Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani, who replaced Cynthia Carroll in April last year, is reviewing projects in pursuit of cost savings and cash-flow gains.
“It’s not the platinum price, not the rand,” Hudson-Peacock said. “It’s more along the expectations for value unlock at some stage, in one form or another.”
The price of platinum, used in jewelry and for auto-catalysts in vehicles, gained 5 percent this year. The rand weakened 4 percent in 2014 against the dollar, helping to bolster earnings for mines from production sold in the U.S. currency.
A fair reflection of the company’s value would be its outlook for 2015, as opposed to losses suffered during the strike, Justin Froneman, an analyst at SBG Securities Ltd. in Johannesburg, said by phone on March 17.
“The next set of numbers is going to be messy and complicated,” Froneman said. “The market is largely discounting that” and looking to future earnings, he said.
Amplats is trading at 28 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months, compared with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 for Impala, 26 for Royal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd. and 20 for London-based Lonmin, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Amplats has five buy recommendations, 11 holds and six sells. The stock rallied 1.7 percent to 470.68 rand today after agreeing to pay increases for members of the National Union of Metalworkers, which doesn’t affect the AMCU.
The platinum companies will suffer further production losses even if the AMCU members return to mines as it may take months to get back to normal production, Imara’s Meintjes said. Amplats lost more than 305,000 ounces as a consequence of a two-month strike in 2012, of which 195,000 ounces of losses were incurred during the stoppage and the balance while the mines were ramping up to normal production.