Rapeseed Exports Seen by Oil World Falling to Three-Year Low

World exports of rapeseed and canola will fall to a three-year low in the first half of 2014 as Canada is unable to keep up with demand, Oil World said.

Global shipments from January through June will be 6.01 million metric tons, 7.4 percent less than a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said in a report. Global rapeseed production will be 69.58 million tons in the 2013-14 season, up 8.8 percent from a year earlier. Canada, the biggest exporter, doesn’t have enough rail cars to move its increased supply, so some Asian buyers switched to Australia, Oil World said.

“Canada is to be seen as the major culprit for the developing supply shortage on the world market,” Oil World said. “Several exporters have reduced their export sales from a year ago because of the increased uncertainty whether committed supplies will be available at export locations.”

Canada’s transportation system has been stretched this season as crops competed with rising shipments of crude oil and as farmers harvested record amounts of everything from canola and wheat. Oil World cut its estimate for Canada’s exports in the full 2013-14 season to 7.6 million tons and raised its outlook for the country’s inventories to 3.5 million tons. Canada is the main producer of the canola variety of rapeseed.

Supplies also will be limited through June from Russia and Ukraine, which are “largely sold out” of rapeseed until the next harvest, Oil World said.

European Union imports in the 2013-14 season that started in July will be 3.4 million tons, 200,000 tons lower than estimated last month, Oil World said. Japan’s imports will be 2.38 million tons, 100,000 tons lower than forecast in the prior month, Oil World said.

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