FOMC, Yellen, Obama’s Address, Egypt: Week Ahead Jan. 25-Feb. 1

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to further trim bond purchases as it meets for the last time before Janet Yellen takes over as head of the U.S. central bank from Ben S. Bernanke.

President Barack Obama delivers his fifth State of the Union address and probably will call for increasing the minimum wage and boosting spending on projects to create jobs.

U.S. consumer confidence, home prices and durable goods orders probably rose. In Japan, December’s trade data are forecast to show an 18th straight monthly deficit.

Egypt marks the third anniversary of the 2011 uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak while Mohamed Mursi, who later held the presidency, goes on trial.

Apple Inc., Ford Motor Co., Pfizer Inc., Nintendo Co., Siemens AG and Tokyo Electric Power Co. will report earnings.


-The World Economic Forum concludes in Davos, Switzerland. The final day’s panel discussions will include contributions from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Facebook Inc.’s Sheryl Sandberg and Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn.

-Syria peace talks may continue in Geneva to build on discussions that began Jan. 22 in Montreux, Switzerland. Representatives of President Bashar al-Assad and the opposition met separately with a United Nations special envoy to the negotiations, which have yet to progress to face-to-face meetings between the two sides.

-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heads to India to join celebrations marking Republic Day. He’s the first Japanese premier to be invited to the event, signaling closer ties between countries that both have territorial disputes with China.

-Egyptians mark the third anniversary of the 2011 uprising that led to former President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster. Both the Muslim Brotherhood and supporters of the military-backed government may take to the streets for rallies that would raise the possibility of more violence days after a new constitution was approved in a referendum that prompted unrest.

-Hery Rajaonarimampianina will be inaugurated as Madagascar’s new president.


-Germany’s Social Democrats, the junior partner in the coalition government, hold a party convention to debate policy and to elect Martin Schulz as their lead candidate for May’s European Parliament elections. 11:00 in Berlin (05:00 EST).

-National Football League Pro Bowl. The best players in the American Football Conference and National Football Conference compete in the annual exhibition game. 14:00 in Honolulu, Hawaii (19:00 EST).

-The 56th Grammy Awards. The National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences announces the winners of the Grammy Awards for the year’s best music. Jay Z is nominated for nine awards, the most of any artist. Daft Punk, Taylor Swift and Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are nominees for album of the year. 17:00 on CBS from Los Angeles (20:00 EST).

-Bayerische Motoren Werke AG introduces the limited-edition M6 coupe, its most expensive and fastest model available in China. Clyde Zhu, BMW China’s vice president of marketing, and Martijn Oremus, product head in the country, discuss plans to sell the M6 amid a drive by Chinese President Xi Jinping to rein in lavish spending in the nation. 09:00 in Beijing (1/25 20:00 EST).


-Apple Inc. fiscal first-quarter earnings report. The world’s largest company by market value will probably announce quarterly earnings per share rose during the holiday shopping season, according to a Bloomberg survey, after introducing its latest models of iPhones and iPads. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and other Apple executives will probably give an update on how iPhone sales are faring in China after China Mobile Ltd. started selling the smartphones this month. After 13:30 in Cupertino, California. (16:30 EST).

-U.S. new home sales probably slowed for a second month in December, according to a Bloomberg survey, as colder weather and snowstorms kept some buyers away. Even with the decline, builders probably posted their best sales last year since 2008. The Commerce Department reports at 10:00 in Washington.

-U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Jo White gives the keynote address at the Securities Regulation Institute conference. 09:00 in San Diego (12:00 EST).

-U.S. farm legislation. Congressional negotiators may reach an agreement as early as this week on agricultural subsidies and food aid. The most contentious issues include spending levels on nutrition assistance for the poor. Time to be determined.

-U.S.-Pakistan. Secretary of State John Kerry will host Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan’s national security and foreign affairs adviser, for talks at the State Department. While the meeting is aimed at expanding the countries’ strategic partnership, tensions persist over U.S. drone strikes aimed at Taliban insurgents in Pakistan. In Washington. Time to be announced.

-The group of 18 euro-area finance ministers begins a two-day meeting at which they will discuss Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of its bailout program and negotiations to create a euro-area bank-failure agency. Other topics will include Portugal’s bailout exit and Slovenia’s efforts to stabilize its banks. 15:00 in Brussels (09:00 EST)

-French President Francois Hollande begins a two-day visit to Turkey that includes meetings with President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A joint press conference with Gul will take place at 16:30 in Ankara (09:30 EST).

-European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks during a presentation of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s transition report at 09:30 in Vienna (03:30 EST).

-German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos and Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg speak at a European People’s Party conference. 19:00 in Brussels (13:00 EST).

-Ruling on Chile-Peru maritime dispute. The UN International Court of Justice will rule on a maritime border dispute between Chile and Peru that stems from a war between the nations 130 years ago. 15:00, The Hague, Netherlands (09:00 EST).

-Honduras presidential inauguration. Juan Orlando Hernandez of the ruling National Party is sworn in as president after promising to deploy more troops to rein in crime in the world’s most violent country. Honduras’s 2024 bonds have returned 7 percent since Hernandez’s November election, compared with a 0.3 percent loss for Latin American dollar debt as of Jan. 22.

-The U.S. Supreme Court is in session for 2013-14 period. Click this line for weekly schedule.

-Japan will release December trade data, with the nation forecast to post an 18th straight monthly deficit. The shortfall in the first 11 months of 2013 was already worse than any full year on record as energy-import values increased due to the weak yen and the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster. 08:50 in Tokyo (01/26 18:50 EST).

-Bank of Japan releases minutes of December meeting, when there was no change to monetary policy. 08:50 in Tokyo.

-The European Commission publishes its biweekly agriculture conditions forecast for the near future. 11:00 in London (06:00 EST).

-ECONOMY: Hong Kong trade data (Dec.), German Ifo business confidence (Jan.), French jobless claims (Dec.)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Israel benchmark interest rate.

-EARNINGS: Caterpillar Inc., LG Electronics Inc., AU Optronics Corp., Hindustan Unilever Ltd., STMicroelectronics NV


-U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence. American consumers probably became more optimistic in January, according to a Bloomberg survey, brightening the outlook for spending. The Conference Board reports at 10:00 in New York. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities also probably climbed in the 12 months ended in November by the most in almost eight years, according to a Bloomberg survey. The S&P/Case-Shiller index is released at 09:00 in Washington.

-U.S. durable goods orders probably increased in December, according to a Bloomberg survey, signaling that production gains will continue to help drive the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-State of the Union. President Barack Obama delivers his fifth State of the Union address to U.S. Congress. The president’s speech probably will include calls to tackle income inequality by increasing the minimum wage, and boosting spending on infrastructure and other projects to create jobs. He’s also likely to discuss his latest plans to end the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan. Obama’s address comes in the face of plunging ratings: Only 41 percent approved of his performance compared to 50 percent who disapproved in a Jan. 18-20 Gallup poll. 21:00 in Washington.

-U.K. GDP. The U.K. statistics office publishes its first estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates the economy grew 0.7 percent after an 0.8 percent expansion in the third quarter. The Bank of England said this month there are upside risks to its forecasts for the quarter. 09:30 London (04:30 EST).

-Russian President Vladimir Putin meets European Union President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Barroso during the annual EU-Russia summit. No details of the agenda have been made public. The meeting starts at 13:25 CET in Brussels, with a news conference scheduled for 16:00.

-U.S. bond auction. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $32 billion in two-year notes.

-U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray gives his semi-annual report to the House Financial Services Committee. Republicans opposed the nomination of Cordray, saying the CFPB had too much power to operate independently. 10:00 in Washington.

-The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States summit begins. Celac is an economic and political bloc that excludes the U.S. and Canada. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto are scheduled to attend. 08:30 in Havana (08:30 EST).

-Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan will review the country’s benchmark interest rate as he fights Asia’s fastest inflation. Rajan is forecast to hold the rate at 7.75 percent, according to 25 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 11:00 in India (12:30 EST).

-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will make his first official visit to Scotland and deliver a speech at an event hosted by the Scottish Council of Development and Industry. 13:15 in Edinburgh (08:15 EST).

-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to fly to Iran to discuss topics including energy and efforts to expand trade by setting up a joint industrial zone on their border. The conflict in Syria is also likely to be on the agenda.

-Egypt’s ousted President Mohamed Mursi goes on trial after being charged in connection with a jailbreak during the 2011 revolt that overthrew Hosni Mubarak.

-ECONOMY: Taiwan GDP (fourth quarter), China industrial profits (Dec.), French consumer confidence (Jan.), Italian consumer confidence (Jan.)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Turkish Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci delivers the country’s inflation report.

-EARNINGS: Ford Motor Co., Yahoo! Inc., AT&T Inc., Pfizer Inc., Comcast Corp., SK Hynix Inc., Koninklijke Philips NV, Siemens AG


-Fed policy announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its final meeting under Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose tenure ends on Jan. 31. The central bank, which has pledged to continue buying bonds until the labor market has “improved substantially,” will probably trim bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next six meetings before announcing an end to the program no later than December, according to a Bloomberg survey. The FOMC on Dec. 18 announced its first step to taper monthly purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. U.S. payrolls last month expanded at the slowest pace in three years. 14:00 in Washington.

-Facebook Inc. earnings report. Facebook will probably report that profit surged to $2.35 billion on a 48 percent gain in revenue, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg as of Jan. 23. The company has benefited from offering a broader range of options to advertisers through its mobile application. After 13:00 in Menlo Park, California. (16:00 EST).

-U.S. bond auction. The U.S. will sell $15 billion in floating-rate notes, the Treasury Department’s first new security since 1997. The rate on the two-year notes will be benchmarked to the 13-week bill auction-rate high. It will be reset daily.

-Details of the Fiat-Chrysler merger are released along with 2013 results for the combined carmaker. Fiat’s board meets in Milan to decide on the company’s headquarters and stock listing, and to sign off on the results. Timing TBA.

-Malaysia’s central bank will set interest rates after holding the key rate at 3 percent at its last meeting to support growth even as inflationary pressures rise. 18:00 in Kuala Lumpur (05:00 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly oil supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: South Korea industrial production (Dec.) and current account balance (Dec.), Italian business confidence (Jan.)

-CENTRAL BANKS: South Africa interest rate decision

-EARNINGS: Boeing Co., Qualcomm Inc., WellPoint Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Canon Inc., Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Nintendo Co., Novartis AG


-The U.S. economy probably expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared with 4.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey. Companies are likely to have limited inventory-building following the biggest stockpiling in three years in the third quarter. The figures may also show consumer spending accelerated. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.

-Ending America’s oil-export ban. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on whether to end the ban on U.S. crude oil exports. Senator Lisa Murkowski, the panel’s top Republican, proposes lifting the restrictions, which have been in effect since the 1970s Arab oil embargo. Ending the ban would benefit oil producers, though it may be costly to some refiners. 10:00 in Washington.

-U.S. bond auction. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $35 billion in five-year notes along with $29 billion in seven-year notes.

-The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 2.5 percent, according to 12 of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, as a stronger currency helps damp inflationary pressures. 09:00 in Wellington (1/29 15:00 EST).

-HSBC China Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for January may have dropped below 50 for the first time in six months, suggesting an economic contraction. A preliminary reading on Jan. 23 was for 49.6. 09:45 Beijing time (1/29 20:45 EST).

-Heads of state from the 54-nation African Union begin a two-day meeting in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. The annual summit will feature discussions on agriculture, food and security, including the conflicts in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

-The International Grains Council publishes its monthly crop report. The global wheat production estimate may be reduced as low prices spur farmers to switch to other crops. 15:00 in London (10:00 EST).

-The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas supply report. 10:30 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort (weekly), Japan retail trade (Dec.), South Africa producer price inflation (Dec.), South Africa M3 money supply (Dec.), Spain gross domestic product (fourth quarter), Swiss KOF leading indicator (Jan.), U.K. mortgage approvals (Dec.)


-EARNINGS: Google Inc., Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp., Eli Lilly & Co., Visa Inc., ConocoPhillips, PulteGroup Inc., Time Warner Cable Inc., Viacom Inc., Occidental Petroleum Corp., Japan Tobacco Inc., KDDI Corp., Lenovo Group Ltd., NEC Corp., Sands China Ltd. (via Las Vegas Sands Corp.), Toshiba Corp., Nomura Holdings Inc., Roche Holding AG, Infineon Technologies AG, Hennes & Mauritz AB, British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc, Diageo Plc, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA


-Ready for Hillary, the super-PAC that’s promoting former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s candidacy for president in 2016, will detail its donors, donation amounts and total raised to the Federal Election Commission by today. The group says it raised $4 million in 2013. Clinton says she will make a decision on a presidential campaign later this year.

-Russia may report its 2013 economic growth slowed to 1.5 percent from 3.4 percent the previous year, according to the median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Release due between today and Feb. 3. Time TBA.

-Mexico rate decision. Banco de Mexico will probably keep its benchmark rate unchanged at a record-low 3.5 percent. Policy makers in December said the economy will strengthen gradually in 2014 and reaffirmed their growth forecast of 3 percent to 4 percent. 09:00 in Mexico City (10:00 EST).

-Japan December core consumer prices are forecast to rise more than 1% from a year earlier for a second straight month as the Bank of Japan implements unprecedented easing to achieve its 2% inflation target. 08:30 in Tokyo (01/30 18:30 EST).

-U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is among speakers scheduled to attend the annual Munich Security Conference, with topics of discussion likely to include Iran, Syria and Ukraine. Starts at 15:00 in Munich (09:00 EST).

-Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party starts a three-day national conference. Begins at 09:00 in Valladolid (03:00 EST).

-The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its cattle inventory report for January. 15:00 in Washington.

-ECONOMY: U.S. personal spending (Dec.), University of Michigan consumer confidence (Jan., final), Canada GDP (Dec.), Brazil budget report (Dec.), Japan jobless data (Dec.), Japan job-to-applicant ratio (Dec.), Japan household spending (Dec.), Japan industrial production (Dec.), Turkey trade balance (Dec.), South Africa trade balance (Dec.), Spain CPI (Jan.); U.K. mortgage approvals (Dec.); Italian unemployment (Dec.); Greek retail sales (Nov.); French consumer spending (Dec.)

-CENTRAL BANKS: Colombia rate decision.

-EARNINGS: MasterCard Inc., Chevron Corp., ANA Holdings Inc., Honda Motor Co., Japan Airlines Co., Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., Nippon Yusen KK, NTT Docomo Inc., Shiseido Co., Tokyo Electric Power Co., Mizuho Financial Group Inc., BT Group Plc

-SOVEREIGN RATINGS UPDATES: Azerbaijan (S&P), EFSF (Moody’s), ESM (Moody’s), Kenya (Fitch), Norway (DBRS), Russia (Fitch), Rwanda (Fitch), Slovakia (S&P), Ukraine (Moody’s), Zambia (Moody’s)


-The Fed’s new chief. Janet Yellen becomes the first female leader in the Federal Reserve’s 100-year history. Yellen told the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in November that it’s “imperative that we do what we can to promote a very strong recovery.” She voted in January with the majority of policy makers to taper the Fed’s monthly bond purchases. One of Yellen’s challenges is to scale back the Fed’s economic stimulus program without trigging a rise in bonds yields or pushing down inflation, which is below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In Washington.

-NFL Super Bowl eve. The Seattle Seahawks (15-3) and the Denver Broncos (15-3) run through their final practice sessions at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Super Bowl will be played tomorrow, Feb. 2, at 18:30.

-China announces its official manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for January. The index slipped to a four-month low in December, underscoring challenges for President Xi Jinping as he tries to sustain economic momentum while rolling out changes. 09:00 Beijing time (1/31 20:00 EST).

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