Best Wishes for Many Happy Returns -- From Europe

Merry Christmas from Europe.

One of the most reliable technical indicators we know has just flashed a buy signal in time for Christmas. The percentage of stocks in the Euro 600 Index (the European equivalent of the S&P 500 Index) has dropped below 20 percent, suggesting the market has become oversold. We've witnessed five similar occurrences in the past two years.


The index rallied each time its components became this oversold, which we can see buy overlaying it atop the data.


With just 21 days left this year to generate additional return, we calculated 21-day returns for the five observations. Each was positive and the average gain was 7.4 percent.

Since hedge fund mangers know they'll get 20 percent of every profitable trade (payable as a cash bonus in January), we suspect they will be pushing hard for incremental return. This means more buyers, and more momentum behind what appear to be winning trades.

Merry Christmas from Europe.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.