U.S. Budget Talks, Merkel, Japan Economy: Week Ahead Dec. 9-14Heather Langan, Greg Miles and Jim McDonald
U.S. Senate and House negotiators face a Dec. 13 deadline to reach a compromise on a proposed budget.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses leaders of her Christian Democratic Union on a coalition deal struck with the Social Democratic Party, whose members will vote on whether to endorse it. A defeat could trigger elections.
Japan’s third-quarter growth may have slowed, data in the coming week will show.
Blackstone’s Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. plans to raise as much as $2.4 billion in a U.S. initial public offering, the most ever for a hotel company.
MONDAY, DEC. 9
-Japan’s third-quarter growth may have slowed to an annualized 1.6 percent from the initial reading of 1.9 percent as the increase in companies’ capital investment was lower than expected. 08:50 in Tokyo (12/08 18:50 EST).
-Chinese inflation may have slowed in November as prices in service industries cooled. China’s consumer prices rose less than economists forecast in October and factory-gate deflation deepened for the first time in five months, reducing the odds that officials will tighten monetary policy. 09:30 in Beijing (12/08 20:30 EST).
-Euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss ongoing aid talks with Greece as well as Cyprus’s progress in its bailout program. They will also discuss European Union efforts to create a Single Resolution Mechanism for euro-area lenders. 15:00 in Brussels (09:00 EST).
-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks to the Economic Club of New York. Under Carney, the BOE Monetary Policy Committee pledged not to consider increasing its key interest rate until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which the central bank now forecasts will be reached by the end of 2014. 12:15 in New York.
-Hagel in Pakistan. U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel will meet with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif today to discuss stability in Afghanistan after he snubbed President Hamid Karzai during a weekend visit to the war-torn country.
-German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses senior members of her Christian Democratic Union at a party meeting to deliberate on the coalition agreement struck with the Social Democratic Party. Speech at 12:00 in Berlin (06:00 EST).
-Mexican energy reform. Mexican Senators continue debate on a draft bill proposed by members of its two biggest parties this weekend that would end the country’s monopoly over its $95 billion-per-year oil industry. A full Senate vote is expected as soon as Dec. 10. If approved, the proposal will be sent to the lower house. Congress ends it regular fall session on Dec. 15.
-European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch speaks at the Internationales ZinsFORUM 2013. 09:15 in Frankfurt (03:15 EST).
-IMF and Argentina. The International Monetary Fund’s board meets to discuss a report prepared by Managing Director Christine Lagarde following allegations the nation misreported economic data. Lagarde last month recommended that Argentina, the first nation to be censured by the IMF, be given more time to introduce a new consumer price index, according to two IMF board officials. In Washington. Time to be determined.
-U.S. Congress and Iran sanctions. The Senate returns from recess as some Democrats and Republicans push for a new round of economic sanctions against Iran in an effort to force the elimination of its nuclear program. The Obama administration has said any action would undercut a six-month interim agreement with Iran. Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, proposes sanctions that would take effect after six months and allow a waiver by the president.
-Barclays Plc senior strategists will issue outlook for markets including commodities, and release their 2014 Global Outlook report. 08:30 EST in New York.
-Former Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer speaks at a conference on the economy and housing prices. In Tel Aviv at 09:00 (02:00 EST).
-U.S. Supreme Court is in session for 2013-14 period. Click this line for weekly schedule.
-ECONOMY: German industrial production (Oct.), German trade balance (Oct.), Japan current account (Oct.), Mexico inflation (Nov.), Taiwan trade data (Nov.), Bank of France business sentiment (Nov.), Portugal GDP (third quarter), Turkey industrial production (Oct.)
-CENTRAL BANKS: Sri Lanka rate decision
-U.S. Major League Baseball owners’ private winter meetings begin, where the professional futures of leading free agents may be decided, including Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson of the New York Yankees; St. Louis Cardinals’ Carlos Beltran; and Mike Napoli of the Boston Red Sox. Orlando, Florida. Through Dec. 12.
TUESDAY DEC. 10
-Volcker rule. U.S. regulators will meet to adopt the final version of the Volcker rule banning banks from making speculative bets with their own money, a centerpiece of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis. Wall Street banks and other financial companies aggressively opposed parts of the rule. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission meets at 09:30 in Washington, with other regulatory agencies convening 30 minutes later.
-U.S. bond auctions. The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $30 billion in three-year notes today, $21 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow and $13 billion in 30-year bonds on Dec. 12. 13:00 in Washington.
-EPA and Supreme Court. U.S. Supreme Court hears arguments on an Environmental Protection Agency rule that would curb emissions from coal-fired power plants. A federal appeals court last year threw out the cross-state air pollution rule in a victory for coal companies and utilities. 10 a.m.
-European Union finance ministers meet in Brussels to try to reach a common position on a Single Resolution Mechanism for euro-area banks. The ministers are racing to meet a year-end deadline for an agreement set by EU leaders so that they can begin talks with the European Parliament on a compromise version of the bill, with the goal of final approval before the assembly breaks for elections in May. 09:00 in Brussels (03:00 EST).
-European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference organized by Banca d’Italia. 13:00 in Rome (07:00 EST).
-The European Parliament votes on the European Commission’s proposal to temporarily cut supply of EU carbon-emissions permits in a bid to boost prices from a record low. 11:30 CET in Strasbourg (05:30 EST).
-China industrial-production and retail-sales growth may have slowed in November, according to surveys of economists, in signs that expansion is cooling in the fourth quarter from the previous period. 13:30 in Beijing (00:30 EST).
-New Chinese lending in yuan may have increased in November, signaling the nation is steering more funding away from the shadow-banking system. M2 money supply growth may have remained flat. As early as today through Dec. 15.
-Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference. Speakers include Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf (08:00), Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan (09:20), BlackRock Inc. President Robert Kapito (11:30), Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach (12:30), and KKR & Co. Co-Chairman and Co-CEO George Roberts (13:10). In New York.
-Hearing on Asiana Airlines crash. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board will hold a two-day hearing on the July 6 crash during which Asiana Airlines Inc.’s Boeing Co. 777 struck a seawall short of the runway in San Francisco. The hearing will focus on pilot performance in automated aircraft and other issues. 09:00 in Washington.
-Charles Ergen and LightSquared Inc. debt purchase. The billionaire Dish Network Corp. chairman may learn at a U.S. Bankruptcy Court hearing whether his bid for dismissal of a Harbinger Capital Partners LLC lawsuit is successful. Philip Falcone’s Harbinger claims Ergen improperly bought up debt in the bankrupt broadband-services company to win control of its wireless satellite assets. Falcone is seeking to retain control of LightSquared. In Manhattan, 10:00 EST.
-Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong begins a three-day trip to South Korea, where he’ll meet President Park Geun Hye on Dec. 11 to discuss regional tensions and ways to strengthen economic ties.
-OPEC publishes its monthly report detailing estimates for crude production and world oil demand. 12:40 CET in Vienna (06:40 EST).
-Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences publishes report on wheat exports and prices, sugar, cotton, dairy, beef and wool. 10:00 in Melbourne (18:00 EST on Dec. 9).
-Malaysian Palm Oil Board releases production, export and inventory data for November. 12:30 in Kuala Lumpur (23:30 EST, Dec. 9).
-The Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit will bring together industry leaders to discuss the most important technologies for data-driven enterprise. Starting at 08:00 (03:00 EST) in London.
-The Nobel prize awards ceremony, which marks the anniversary of Alfred Nobel’s death, will honor this year’s laureates. The prizes, announced in October, went to Eugene F. Fama, Robert J. Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen for their achievements in economic sciences. The peace award was won by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, while Francois Englert and Peter W. Higgs shared the physics honor. 16:20 CET in Stockholm (10:20 EST).
-European soccer’s Champions League matches includes defending champion Bayern Munich hosting Manchester City. 20:45 CET (14:45 EST).
-ECONOMY: JOLTs U.S. job openings (Oct.), U.S. wholesale inventories (Oct.), French industrial and manufacturing output (Oct.), Italian industrial production (Oct.), Italian GDP (third quarter, final report), U.K. RICS house-price balance (Nov.), U.K. industrial production (Oct.), U.K. trade balance (Oct.), Niesr GDP estimate (Nov.), Egypt consumer price inflation (Nov.), Turkey gross domestic product (third quarter), South Africa mining production (Oct.), South Africa manufacturing production (Oct.), South Africa employment statistics (third quarter).
-EARNINGS: H&R Block Inc.
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 11
-Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew will testify to the House Financial Services Committee on the international financial system and progress in reforming the International Monetary Fund. Lew said in a Dec. 5 speech that he will press other countries to toughen their financial regulations “so that reforms in other jurisdictions are as strong as our own.” Lew attends the Group of 20 finance ministers in Australia in February. 10:00 in Washington.
-The U.S. budget deficit probably narrowed to $167 billion in November from $172.1 billion last year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, as automatic cuts slowed the pace of government outlays. 14:00 in Washington.
-JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon (08:00) and American Express Co. CEO Kenneth Chenault (14:00) speak at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference. In New York.
-Aramark Holdings Corp. IPO. The food concessionaire and stockholders including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. plan to raise as much as $834 million in a U.S. initial public offering. At the high end of the range, Aramark is valued at $10.4 billion including debt, about $2 billion more than during its 2007 takeover, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The stock is expected to start trading Dec. 12, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
-Obamacare hearing. Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, testifies before a House subcommittee on the implementation of the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. 10:00 in Washington.
-The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil-market report detailing estimates for world oil supply and demand. Embargo 10:00 CET in Paris (04:00 EST).
-Bank of Austria Governor Ewald Nowotny presents the central bank’s Financial Stability Report. 10:00 in Vienna (04:00 EST).
-Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale speaks at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on “Forward Guidance and its Effects.” London 13:00 (08:00 EST).
-Platts Oil Markets Middle East conference discusses regional oil trading with presentations from ministries, companies and an exchange. 09:00 in Dubai (00:00 EST) through Dec. 12.
-European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks at an International Monetary Fund book presentation organized by the Center for Financial Studies. 12:00 in Frankfurt (06:00 EST).
-The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly estimates for supply and demand of major domestic and global crops. 12:00 EST in Washington.
-FranceAgriMer publishes monthly update on outlook for grain stocks and exports. 12:45 CET in Paris (06:45 EST).
-Israeli Finance Minister Yair Lapid speaks at an Israel Securities Authority conference. 08:45 in Tel Aviv (1:45 EST).
-ECONOMY: U.S. monthly budget statement (Nov.), Japan Machine Orders (Oct.), South Korea unemployment (Nov.), German inflation (Nov., second report), Turkey current account balance (Oct.), South Africa consumer price inflation (Nov.), South Africa retail sales (Oct.).
-CENTRAL BANKS: Paraguay rate decision, Iceland rate decision
-EARNINGS: Costco Wholesale Corp., Inditex SA
-Time magazine announces its Person of the Year for 2013. President Barack Obama was selected in 2012.
-Soccer’s Champions League matches include seven-time European Cup winner AC Milan against Ajax. 20:45 CET (14:45 EST).
THURSDAY, DEC. 12
-U.S. retail sales probably climbed in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, as Americans flocked to auto dealers and began holiday shopping. The data indicate consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy, is picking up in the fourth quarter after a slowdown in the previous three months. The Commerce Department reports at 08:30 in Washington.
-Blackstone’s Hilton IPO. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., the world’s largest hotel operator, will set price terms for its U.S. initial public offering. Owned by Blackstone Group LP, Hilton plans to raise as much as $2.4 billion, the most ever for a hotel company. At the midpoint, it will have a stock-market value of about $19.2 billion, larger than hotel chains including Marriott International Inc. The stock is set to start trading Dec. 13, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
-German SPD coalition ballot. Deadline expires at midnight in Berlin (18:00 EST) for responses in a mail-in ballot of the 475,000 Social Democratic Party members on entering a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s bloc. At least 20 percent of the SPD membership has to participate for the ballot to be valid. The result will be announced by Dec. 15, and a “no” vote would be a possible trigger for new elections.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin gives his annual speech to the Federal Assembly in Moscow, where he may announce changes to the country’s constitution. Time and further topics TBA.
-U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will be questioned by the House of Commons Treasury Committee about the Dec. 5 Autumn Statement in which he forecast higher growth and less borrowing. Hearing begins at 10:00 in London (05:00 EST).
-India economic data. India’s Statistics Ministry releases data on consumer price inflation and factory output, two indicators that may factor into a central bank decision later in the month on adjusting the benchmark interest rate. Times to be determined.
-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes his annual speech to the media. 19:00 in Jerusalem (12:00 EST).
-Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks to the Canadian Club of Montreal. Poloz kept Canada’s benchmark rate at 1 percent during his last policy decision. His remarks will be published on the central bank’s website at 12:50 EST, with a press conference to follow at 14:00 EST.
-Lifting U.S. ban on in-flight calls. The Federal Communications Commission will consider advancing Chairman Tom Wheeler’s plan to eliminate a ban on in-flight mobile phone calls. The FCC vote would open a period for public comment, followed by a second agency vote. Airlines would have the final decision on allowing calls. 14:30 in Washington.
-Medicare doctor costs. The U.S. Senate Finance Committee votes on a proposal to freeze Medicare physician-reimbursement rates and repeal the growth-rate mechanism originally set up to control costs. Without legislative action, the mechanism will result in a 20 percent reduction in reimbursement rates. 10:00 in Washington.
-Australia publishes November jobs data after employers cut full-time payrolls in October by the most in more than a year. 11:30 in Sydney (12/11 19:30 EST).
-Bank of Korea will probably hold its benchmark interest rate at 2.5 percent amid low inflation and uncertainty related to the tapering of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 10:00 in Seoul (12/11 20:00 EST).
-Indonesia’s central bank will set benchmark borrowing costs after it unexpectedly raised its key rate last month to 7.5 percent, the highest level since 2009, to sustain overseas demand for its currency. Time to be determined.
-Swiss National Bank policy decision. The SNB’s three-member governing board will announce its policy decision at 09:30 (03:30 EST) in Bern. The central bank’s benchmark interest rate target is at zero, and SNB President Thomas Jordan reaffirmed its franc ceiling against the euro on Nov. 26. Jordan holds a news conference at 10:00 CET.
-European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen speaks at the closing ceremony and press conference on the EU and ESCB cooperation project with the National Bank of Serbia. 15:15 in Belgrade (09:15 EST).
-European Central Bank Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen speaks at a Bank of Finland quarterly press briefing. 10:00 in Helsinki (03:00 EST).
-Reserve Bank of New Zealand will set interest rates after last month saying currency gains may give it scope to delay any rate increases from the current 2.5 percent. 09:00 in Wellington (12/11 15:00 EST).
-ECONOMY: U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly), U.S. business inventories (Oct.), Brazil retail sales (Oct.) Mexico industrial production (Oct.), Euro-area industrial production (Oct.), Bloomberg December German economic survey, French inflation (Nov.).
-CENTRAL BANKS: Chile rate decision, Peru rate decision, Philippines rate decision
-EARNINGS: Adobe Systems Inc., Metro AG
-Nominations for The 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards, which provide early clues to the Oscars. “Argo,” last year’s top film drama at the Globes, went on to win the Academy Award for best picture. The ceremony is viewed in more than 160 countries worldwide. 05:00 in Beverly Hills, California (08:00 EST).
FRIDAY, Dec. 13
-U.S. budget talks. Senate and House negotiators face a self-imposed deadline to propose a budget by today that could replace some automatic spending cuts set to start next month. The deadline is part of an agreement reached by Congress and President Obama in October to end the 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government. Government funding expires Jan. 15 and the debt limit is suspended through Feb. 7. In Washington. time to be determined.
-Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gather in Tokyo for a three-day summit with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, marking 40 years of Japanese ties with the region. Japanese officials have visited several Asean countries this year as they jostle with China for influence in the region amid a territorial dispute between Asia’s two largest economies.
-Latvijas Banka Governor Ilmars Rimsevics delivers the keynote speech at a Nordic-Baltic financial conference organized by the International Monetary Fund, Eesti Pank and Sveriges Riksbank. 12:45 in Tallinn (05:45 EST). Eesti Pank Governor Ardo Hansson delivers opening remarks at 09:00, then joins ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio and Stefan Ingves, governor of Sveriges Riksbank, on a panel at 15:45 local time.
-Russia’s central bank will leave its benchmark one-week auction rate unchanged at 5.5 percent, the same level it has been at since September 2012, according to all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Time TBA.
-Japan’s Federation of Electric Power Cos. will release data on fuel purchases and consumption by the country’s utilities. 11:00 in Tokyo (21:00 EST on Dec. 12).
-ECONOMY: U.S. producer price index (Nov.), Argentina inflation (Nov.), Italian general government debt (third quarter), Spanish inflation (Nov.), U.K. construction output (Oct.)
-“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” opens in U.S. theaters after screenings began Dec. 10 in some European markets. The movie is the second of three based on J.R.R. Tolkien’s books. The 2012 film, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” collected $1.02 billion in global ticket sales, Box Office Mojo says.
-The third five-day Ashes cricket Test between host Australia and England starts in Perth. Australia will be seeking to take control of the series after its opening win, while England is aiming for a fourth consecutive series victory. 10:30 local time (21:30 EST).
SATURDAY, DEC. 14
-European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks during a finance workshop at the World Policy Conference along with former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet and Marek Belka, president of the National Bank of Poland. 16:30 in Monaco (10:30 EST).
-ECONOMY: China foreign direct investment (Nov., as early as 12/14)
-Heisman Trophy. The winner of the trophy for U.S. college football’s best player will be announced in New York City. Jameis Winston, quarterback at No. 1-ranked Florida State University, is the favorite to win, according to an ESPN poll. Texas A&M University’s Johnny Manziel won last year. 20:00 EST.
Note to our readers: Click on blue ECONOMY headline at bottom of each day for access to Bloomberg’s complete global economic calendar.
-Editors: Heather Langan, Nancy Moran