Rupiah, Bonds and Stocks Decline on Surprise Trade ShortfallYudith Ho
Indonesia’s rupiah fell, completing its worst week since August, as data showed the nation’s trade balance unexpectedly swung back to a deficit in September. Government bonds and local stocks dropped.
The shortfall was $657 million, compared with a revised $72 million excess in August and the $96 million surplus estimated by economists in a Bloomberg survey. Exports slid 6.9 percent, declining for an 18th month. Consumer-price gains eased to 8.3 percent last month, from 8.4 percent in September, a separate report showed today. The rupiah plunged 14 percent in the third quarter as inflation surged to a four-year high.
“This shows the August surplus was temporary and that the trade deficit is probably going to be sustained in the coming months, while the current-account deficit will remain until mid-2014,” said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “The inflation number shows that the panic a few months ago was excessive.”
The rupiah slid 0.6 percent to 11,333 per dollar as of 4:11 p.m. in Jakarta, prices from local banks show. The currency has fallen every day this week to drop 2.8 percent from Oct. 25, the most since the five days ended Aug. 23. It gained 2.7 percent last month in the second-best performance among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, trailing only Malaysia’s ringgit.
Most Asian exchange rates declined today after data showing an improvement in U.S. business activity spurred speculation the Federal Reserve may start to taper stimulus that has buoyed emerging markets sooner than previously expected.
The Jakarta Composite index of shares lost 1.7 percent to close at 4,432.589, the biggest decline since Sept. 30. PT Bank Mandiri, the nation’s largest lender by assets, fell 2.3 percent. Developer PT Alam Sutera Realty declined 3.3 percent and PT Bumi Serpong Damai dropped 2.6 percent.
In the offshore markets, the rupiah’s one-month non-deliverable forwards fell 1.1 percent to 11,162 per dollar, trading 1.5 percent stronger than the onshore spot rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A fixing used to settle the contracts was set at 11,035, from 10,902 yesterday, according to the Association of Banks in Singapore.
One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose 38 basis points, or 0.38 percentage point, to 13.15 percent.
The yield on the nation’s 5.625 percent bonds maturing in May 2023 advanced five basis points to 7.52 percent, the highest level since Oct. 17, prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association show. The yield rose 44 basis points this week.