Corn Reserves Seen Higher by USDA as Higher Yields Boost Crop

U.S. corn inventories before next year’s harvest will be larger than the government forecast last month because of higher yields for the grain.

Reserves on Aug. 31, 2014, will be 1.855 billion bushels, up from 1.837 billion (46.7 million metric tons) forecast in August, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected 1.739 billion, on average. Inventories before the start of this year’s harvest will be 661 million bushels, compared with 719 million forecast a month earlier and 989 million last year.

Farmers will collect a record 13.843 billion bushels, up from 13.763 billion estimated last month, the USDA said after completing its second survey of farmers and fields. The average projection of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 13.641 billion.

Average yields this year will be 155.3 bushels an acre, compared with 154.4 bushels estimated in August and 123.4 bushels in 2012. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected 153.9 bushels, on average.

World output in the year that begins Oct. 1 will be 956.67 million tons, compared with 957.15 million forecast in August, the USDA said. Global inventories before the start of the Northern Hemisphere harvests in 2014 will be 151.42 million tons, compared with 150.17 million projected in August. Traders forecast a drop to 148.97 million, on average.

Through yesterday, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade tumbled 39 percent in the past 12 months to $4.725 a bushel.

Corn at the farm gate may average $4.80 a bushel in the 12 months that began Sept. 1, compared with $4.90 forecast in August, the USDA said.

Alan Bjerga in Washington at abjerga@bloomberg.net

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